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International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-72555-2
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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2025. The Next Decade of Discovery in Solar and Space Physics: Exploring and Safeguarding Humanity’s Home in Space. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/27938.

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COMMITTEE ON A DECADAL SURVEY FOR SOLAR AND SPACE PHYSICS (HELIOPHYSICS) 2024–2033

STEPHEN A. FUSELIER (NAS), Southwest Research Institute, Co-Chair

ROBYN M. MILLAN, Dartmouth College, Co-Chair

FRANCES BAGENAL (NAS), University of Colorado Boulder

TIMOTHY S. BASTIAN, National Radio Astronomy Observatory

SARBANI BASU, Yale University

RICHARD DOE, Cornell Technical Services, LLC

EILEEN DUKES, Interplanetary Horizons

SCOTT L. ENGLAND, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University

ALLISON N. JAYNES, University of Iowa

DANA WARFIELD LONGCOPE (NAS), Montana State University, Bozeman

TOMOKO MATSUO,¹ University of Colorado Boulder

VIACHESLAV G. MERKIN, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory

DANIEL MÜLLER, European Space Agency

TERRANCE G. ONSAGER, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (retired)

TAI D. PHAN, University of California, Berkeley

TUIJA PULKKINEN (NAS), University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

LIYING QIAN, National Center for Atmospheric Research

MARILIA SAMARA, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

JOSHUA SEMETER, Boston University

ENDAWOKE YIZENGAW, The Aerospace Corporation

GARY P. ZANK (NAS), University of Alabama in Huntsville

Staff

ARTHUR CHARO, Senior Program Officer, Study Director

ABIGAIL SHEFFER, Senior Program Officer, Study Director

COL. GEORGE COYLE, Senior Program Officer

CHRISTOPHER J. JONES, Senior Program Officer

ARUL MOZHI, Associate Director, Aeronautics, Astronomy, Physics, and Space Science

MIA BROWN, Research Associate

MEGAN CHAMBERLAIN, Senior Program Assistant (until April 5, 2024)

COLLEEN N. HARTMAN, Director, Aeronautics, Astronomy, Physics, and Space Science

Panel on the Physics of the Sun And Heliosphere

DANIEL B. REISENFELD, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Co-Chair

SABRINA L. SAVAGE, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Co-Chair

GIANNA CAUZZI, National Solar Observatory

BIN CHEN, New Jersey Institute of Technology

MAUSUMI DIKPATI, National Center for Atmospheric Research

JOE GIACALONE, University of Arizona

LINDSAY GLESENER, University of Minnesota

ADAM F. KOWALSKI, University of Colorado Boulder

SUSAN T. LEPRI, University of Michigan

ANDRÉS MUÑOZ-JARAMILLO, Southwest Research Institute

SUSAN E. POPE, Southwest Research Institute

BRIAN E. WOOD, Naval Research Laboratory

Panel on the Physics of Magnetospheres

LYNN M. KISTLER, University of New Hampshire, Chair

LAUREN W. BLUM, University of Colorado Boulder

IAN J. COHEN, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory

ROBERT W. EBERT, Southwest Research Institute

CHRISTINE GABRIELSE, The Aerospace Corporation

MICHAEL HARTINGER, Space Science Institute

RALUCA ILIE, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign

ENNIO R. SANCHEZ, SRI International

MICHAEL A. SHAY, University of Delaware

PETER D. SPIDALIERE, Independent Consultant

DIMITRIOS VASSILIADIS, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

BRIAN WALSH, Boston University

SHASHA ZOU, University of Michigan

Panel on the Physics of Ionospheres, Thermospheres, and Mesospheres

PHILIP J. ERICKSON, Haystack Observatory, Co-Chair

LARA WALDROP, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, Co-Chair

REBECCA L. BISHOP, The Aerospace Corporation

JOHN T. CLARKE, Boston University

SEEBANY DATTA-BARUA, Illinois Institute of Technology

RICHARD J. FITZGERALD, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory

KATELYNN R. GREER, University of Colorado Boulder

BRIAN J. HARDING, University of California, Berkeley

AMY KEESEE, University of New Hampshire

KRISTINA A. LYNCH, Dartmouth College

DANIEL R. MARSH, University of Leeds

PHIL G. RICHARDS, University of Alabama in Huntsville

Panel on Space Weather Science and Applications

CHRISTINA M.S. COHEN, California Institute of Technology, Co-Chair

THOMAS P. O’BRIEN III, The Aerospace Corporation, Co-Chair

HAZEL M. BAIN, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder

THOMAS E. BERGER, University of Colorado Boulder

YAIRESKA M. COLLADO-VEGA,² National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

HEATHER ELLIOTT, Southwest Research Institute

NOÉ LUGAZ, University of New Hampshire

JUHA-PEKKA LUNTAMA, European Space Agency

STEVEN K. MORLEY, Los Alamos National Laboratory

EMMA L. SPANSWICK, University of Calgary

DREW L. TURNER, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory

KATHRYN WHITMAN, NASA Johnson Space Center

MICHAEL WILTBERGER, National Center for Atmospheric Research

Panel on the State of the Profession

APRILLE J. ERICSSON,³ Assistant Secretary of Defense for Science and Technology, Co-Chair

MARK B. MOLDWIN, University of Michigan, Co-Chair

JIMEZ ASHBY, JR., U.S. Army Combat Capabilities Development Command

DOROTHY CARTER, Michigan State University

LINDSAY VICTORIA GOODWIN, New Jersey Institute of Technology

MCARTHUR JONES, JR., Naval Research Laboratory

SHERI KLUG BOONSTRA, Arizona State University

SCOTT McINTOSH, National Center for Atmospheric Research

JUAN CARLOS MARTINEZ OLIVEROS, University of California, Berkeley

ALESSANDRA A. PACINI, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

KAREEM SORATHIA, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory

SPACE STUDIES BOARD

MARGARET G. KIVELSON (NAS), University of California, Los Angeles, Chair

JAMES H. CROCKER (NAE), Lockheed Martin (retired), Vice Chair

DANIELA CALZETTI, University of Massachusetts Amherst

ROBIN M. CANUP (NAS), Southwest Research Institute

DEEPTO CHAKRABARTY, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

JEFF DOZIER, University of California, Santa Cruz

MELINDA D. DYAR, Mount Holyoke College

ANTONIO L. ELIAS (NAE), Orbital ATK, Inc. (retired)

STEPHEN J. MACKWELL, National Science Foundation

PETER I. MESZAROS (NAS), The Pennsylvania State University

RICHARD M. OBERMANN, U.S. House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology (retired, Professional Staff)

NELSON PEDREIRO (NAE), Lockheed Martin Space

CHRISTA D. PETERS-LIDARD (NAE), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

MARK P. SAUNDERS, Consultant

HOWARD J. SINGER, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

KEIVAN G. STASSUN, Vanderbilt University

ERIKA B. WAGNER, Blue Origin

PAUL D. WOOSTER, Space Exploration Technologies

ENDAWOKE YIZENGAW, The Aerospace Corporation

GARY P. ZANK (NAS), University of Alabama in Huntsville

Staff

COLLEEN N. HARTMAN, Director, Aeronautics, Astronomy, Physics, and Space Science

ARUL MOZHI, Associate Director, Aeronautics, Astronomy, Physics, and Space Science

TANJA PILZAK, Manager, Program Operations

Reviewers

This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.

We thank the following individuals for their review of this report:

Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by GEORGE M. HORNBERGER (NAE), Vanderbilt University, and DAVID N. SPERGEL (NAS), Simons Foundation. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies.

Contents

PREFACE

SUMMARY

1 SOLAR AND SPACE PHYSICS

1.1 Science Highlights from the Last Decade

1.2 Space Weather in the Service of Humanity

1.3 Mission and Vision: Transitioning to the Next Decade

1.4 References

2 NEW AND EMERGING FRONTIERS IN SCIENCE

2.1 Theme 1—Sun–Earth–Space: Our Interconnected Home

2.2 Theme 2—A Laboratory in Space: Building Blocks of Understanding

2.3 Theme 3—New Environments: Exploring Our Cosmic Neighborhood and Beyond

2.4 References

3 SOLAR AND SPACE PHYSICS IN THE SERVICE OF HUMANITY

3.1 Introduction: Space Weather—Imperative and Opportunity

3.2 Space Weather Research

3.3 Strategy for the Next Decade

3.4 Synopsis

3.5 References

4 TOWARD A THRIVING SOLAR AND SPACE PHYSICS COMMUNITY

4.1 The Solar and Space Physics Community

4.2 Theme 1—Demographics of the Workforce

4.3 Theme 2—Solar and Space Physics Education

4.4 Theme 3—DEIA+

4.5 Theme 4—Expanding Public Outreach and Participation

4.6 Synopsis

4.7 References

5 COMPREHENSIVE RESEARCH STRATEGY: A HELIOSYSTEMS LABORATORY AND SUPPORTING RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY

5.1 Introduction

5.2 An Integrated HelioSystems Laboratory

5.3 DRIVE+: Enhancements in Research and Technology

5.4 Preparation for the Next Decade and Beyond

5.5 References

6 SUMMARY OF RESEARCH STRATEGY AND BUDGET IMPLICATIONS

6.1 Introduction

6.2 Budget Analysis

6.3 References

APPENDIXES

A Statement of Task

B Report of the Panel on the Physics of the Sun and Heliosphere

C Report of the Panel on the Physics of Magnetospheres

D Report of the Panel on the Physics of Ionospheres, Thermospheres, and Mesospheres

E Report of the Panel on Space Weather Science and Applications

F Report of the Panel on the State of the Profession: A Vision for a People-Centered Solar and Space Physics (Heliophysics) Community

G Technical, Risk, and Cost Evaluation

H Acronyms and Abbreviations

I Committee and Panel Biographical Information

Preface

Decadal surveys are community-driven studies organized by the Space Studies Board of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. They are notable for their ability to sample thoroughly the research interests, aspirations, and needs of a scientific community. Requested by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and other federal agencies, decadal survey reports play an outsized role in defining the nation’s agenda in particular areas of science for the following 10 years, and often beyond. Decadal surveys are typically led by a primary survey committee (in this report, referred to as the steering committee or the survey committee) that is responsible for the production of a consensus report. The survey committee is supported in its efforts by the work of community members organized in study panels focused on the needs of particular subdisciplines or on broader issues of concern.

This decadal survey report—the third in a series that began with the publication in 2003 of The Sun to the Earth—and Beyond: A Decadal Research Strategy in Solar and Space Physics¹ and continued in 2013 with the publication of Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society²—was requested by the Heliophysics Division of NASA’s Science Mission Directorate (SMD); the National Science Foundation (NSF) Division of Astronomical Sciences and the Geospace Section of the Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences; the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS), and the Department of Defense (DoD) Air Force Office of Scientific Research (AFOSR).

Prior to convening the decadal survey committee, the sponsors worked together and individually with the National Academies to develop a statement of task—a contractual agreement between the National Academies and its financial sponsors—and a noncontractual guidance document that elaborated on the statement of task and included additional requests. The survey was initiated in late summer 2022. Over the next 2 years, some 80 scientists, engineers, and policy experts served on the 20-member steering committee or one of five supporting study panels. The survey committee met six times in person; it also held seven virtual multiple-day meetings and conducted more than 60 teleconferences. Each of the study panels also met two or three times in person; in addition, they met via virtual meetings and frequent teleconference calls.

A primary source for community input to the decadal survey was a widely disseminated “request for information” that resulted in the submission of 450 community input papers.³ Presentations at professional meetings also provided opportunities for dialog with the community; one or both survey committee co-chairs led discussions during summer 2022 at the following NSF-sponsored meetings: CEDAR (Coupling, Energetics, and Dynamics of Atmospheric Regions), GEM (Geospace Environment Modeling), and SHINE (Solar, Heliosphere, and Interplanetary Environment). Additional presentations during summer 2022 occurred at the 16th International Solar Wind Conference and the American Astronomical Society Solar Physics Division meeting. The survey committee co-chairs also led town halls at the fall meetings of the American Geophysical Union in 2022 and 2023.

The decadal survey also benefited from several activities that preceded its start, including a two-part webinar series held on September 30 and October 18, 2021, that was developed by the National Academies’ Space Studies Board to encourage early-career researchers to become involved with the survey; a Space Weather Workshop and interactive discussion on decadal survey plans; NASA’s Helio 2050 workshops, which provided a forum for the community to coordinate input efforts; NASA-sponsored mission concept studies; the Living with a Star Architecture Study; and products from the Space Weather Advisory Group and the National Academies’ Space Weather Roundtable, entities created following the enactment in 2020 of the “Promoting Research and Observations of Space Weather to Improve the Forecasting of Tomorrow Act” (the PROSWIFT Act).

The decadal survey’s statement of task is reprinted in Appendix A. At its highest level, it requires the decadal survey committee to

• Provide an overview of the current state of solar and space physics science and applications, including new and emerging frontiers where solar and space physics expertise enables significant advances and the space weather pipeline from basic research to applications to operations.
• Describe the highest-priority science goals to be addressed in the period of the survey.
• Develop a comprehensive ranked research strategy that provides an ambitious, but realistic, approach to address these science goals.
• Assess the state of the profession, including identification of the workforce expertise and capabilities needed to implement the scientific and technical priorities identified by the survey.

In addition to the statement of task, NASA, NOAA, and NSF provided additional counsel to the survey committee through an ancillary document (https://tinyurl.com/3zdk7cnb). This document provides greater detail on items of specific interest to the sponsors. Within the limits imposed by time and member expertise, the survey committee has endeavored to address the additional requests in this document.

In response to the statement of task and the ancillary document, this decadal survey report presents a ranked strategy of basic and applied research to advance scientific understanding of the Sun; Sun–Earth connections and the origins of space weather; the driving of the ionosphere, thermosphere, and mesosphere from the magnetosphere and the lower atmosphere; and the Sun’s interactions with other bodies in the solar system, the interplanetary medium, and the interstellar medium.

All findings, conclusions, and recommendations are the sole responsibility of the survey steering committee. As noted above, the committee was informed by the work of five study panels:

1. Panel on the Physics of the Sun and Heliosphere (SHP)
2. Panel on the Physics of Magnetospheres (MAG)
3. Panel on the Physics of Ionospheres, Thermospheres, and Mesospheres (ITM)
4. Panel on Space Weather Science and Applications (SWSA)
5. Panel on the State of the Profession (SoP)

The first three panels are discipline-oriented—similar to those developed for the previous decadal survey in solar and space physics. Two new panels were also included in response to the statement of task: the Panel on Space Weather Science and Applications (Appendix E), whose broad remit includes consideration of the science of space weather and the forecast and prediction of its impacts, and the Panel on the State of the Profession (Appendix F), which evaluated the health and vitality of the community with attention to priorities for enhancing the workforce that will be needed to implement the scientific and technical priorities identified by the decadal survey. Consideration of these topics was among the key findings in the 2020 report Progress Toward Implementation of the 2013 Decadal Survey for Solar and Space Physics: A Midterm Assessment.⁴

The three discipline-oriented science panels (SHP, MAG, ITM) were tasked to suggest science goals and elements of a research strategy for accomplishing these panel-identified goals. As seen in their reports (Appendixes B, C, and D), elements of the panel-suggested research strategies included NASA missions (larger than a medium-class Explorer), ground-based projects (NSF mid-scale and larger), theory and modeling, and programs/activities sponsored by NOAA and AFOSR.

The science panels began by reviewing the submitted community input papers; key reference documents, including reports from other National Academies studies; and agency-provided inputs such as the predecadal studies that were conducted by NASA for the Solar Terrestrial Probes and the Living With a Star programs. To address cross-panel issues, the survey also formed working groups that comprised in nearly all instances a total of six to eight internal steering committee or panel members. The working groups held one or two in-person or virtual meetings and also met regularly by teleconference. The topical areas covered by the working group were

• Access to Space
• Data Exploitation
• Theory and Modeling
• Integrating Ground- and Space-Based Observatories
• Communications Infrastructure and Innovations

This decadal survey, like the previous one, contracted with the Aerospace Corporation to perform an independent technical, risk, and cost evaluation (TRACE) of survey committee-selected NASA mission concepts that mapped to the survey’s highest-priority science goals. This effort was made to increase the cost realism of notional missions and to facilitate cost comparisons among missions. Many mission concepts were included in the community input papers submitted in response to an invitation to the research community. The three discipline-oriented science panels—SHP, MAG, and ITM—mapped concepts against their prioritization of science targets in their respective disciplines and provided the survey steering committee with a short list for consideration. In addition, the SWSA panel reviewed the science panel concepts. Focusing on operational utility, the panel evaluated the potential to increase that utility through relatively small augmentations to the complement of instruments or capabilities. The survey committee ultimately determined which concepts would be sent for evaluation to the Aerospace Corporation. The process also allowed for iteration as concepts were refined; details of this process are described in Appendix G.

All decadal surveys build on an existing “program of record,” both U.S. and international. The baseline program of record for the present survey includes the Geospace Dynamics Constellation (GDC) mission concept, which was highly recommended by the 2013 decadal survey. In its initial presentation to the decadal survey, NASA invited the committee to “affirm the continued priority of GDC science” and “provide input on NASA’s consideration of space weather interests as part of the GDC science mission.” NASA also invited the committee to “affirm the continued priority of Dynamical Neutral Atmosphere–Ionosphere Coupling (DYNAMIC) science and to provide input on the formulation of DYNAMIC with a dependence on GDC-provided measurements.”⁵

The decadal survey’s guidance from NASA regarding both missions did not change, notwithstanding the fiscal year (FY) 2024 budget request that led to a “pause” in the development of GDC,⁶ or the release of the president’s FY 2025 budget request,⁷ which proposed the mission’s cancellation, or the request from Congress in the enacted FY 2024 budget that NASA provide a plan that launches GDC by 2030.⁸ In this report, the survey committee acknowledges the significant progress in the development of GDC and strongly affirms the value of GDC science and the importance of this mission in advancing the understanding and prediction of space weather. In developing its comprehensive, balanced, and ranked research strategy, the survey committee assumes a launch of GDC (and DYNAMIC) in 2030–2031.

Chapter 1, “Solar and Space Physics,” the report’s introduction, includes a small sampling of the science and space weather research highlights from the previous decade; it also presents the committee’s strategic vision for the solar and space physics enterprise in the coming decade and beyond. The science and space weather themes that emerged from this vision are discussed in Chapter 2, “New and Emerging Frontiers in Science,” and Chapter 3, “Solar and Space Physics in the Service of Humanity,” respectively. The evolving solar and space physics workforce and the challenges for the next decade are discussed in Chapter 4, “Toward a Thriving Solar and Space Physics Community.” Issues discussed in the previous chapters are addressed comprehensively in Chapter 5, “Comprehensive Research Strategy: A HelioSystems Laboratory and Supporting Research and Technology.” The fiscal needs to realize this strategy are considered in Chapter 6, “Summary of Research Strategy and Budget Implications.” Appendixes that follow Chapter 6 include each of the reports from the decadal survey panels.

This decadal survey could not have been completed without the help of numerous members of the solar and space physics community, U.S. and international; government officials; and many others who made presentations at committee meetings, hosted outreach seminars and town meetings, drafted community input papers, and participated in mission studies. Here, the survey committee would like to acknowledge the exceptionally important contributions made by the following individuals at The Aerospace Corporation: Justin Yoshida, Mark Barrera, and Leah Sobel. The committee would also like to thank officials at the sponsoring agencies for their support and engagement throughout the development of this report, especially Nicola Fox, Margaret (Peg) Luce, and Jared Leisner, NASA; Carrie Black, Zhuangren (Alan) Liu, and Lisa Winter, NSF; Elsayed Talaat and Lawrence Zanetti, NOAA; and Julie Moses, AFOSR. The committee is particularly indebted to Dr. Leisner, the survey committee’s principal point of contact at NASA, who provided detailed and prompt responses to numerous information requests.⁹ Last, the committee thanks David Klumpar, who served as a member of the Access to Space working group. Except for Dr. Klumpar, the working groups were composed of survey committee and panel members. While the working groups did not produce formal reports like those of the panels, their work also informed this report. The additional work of these panel and survey committee members, along with Dr. Klumpar, is greatly appreciated. The survey committee dedicates this report to the memory of Jennifer Gannon, a leader in space weather research and policy who will be sorely missed.