7

Fireside Chat:
Food for Thought on the Next 30 Years

The sixth session of the symposium featured a discussion that spanned a range of topics, including technologies that could have substantial effects on the future food system; contextual challenges facing the food system; visions for the next 30 years of food system progress; issues related to health span, nutrition, and behavior change; consumer and industry responsibility for behavior change; consideration of Native American agricultural practices; and the role of the wealthiest individuals in change efforts. The session was moderated by Rodolphe Barrangou, North Carolina State University.

TECHNOLOGIES FOR THE FUTURE OF FOOD

Barrangou opened the discussion by highlighting the diversity of expertise among symposium participants, who represented academia, government, nongovernmental organizations, regulatory bodies, industry, and consumer groups. Underscoring the unprecedented pace and scale at which the world is changing, he asked about technologies that offer promise in contending with current and emerging challenges. Lauren Abda, Branchfood and Branch Venture Group (BVG), stated that BVG invests in food innovation businesses at the earliest phases of development. In exploring consumer product brands, food technology, and agriculture technology, Abda said, the investment group engages with scientists to understand the products they are bringing to market and how these products can be applied to improving the food system. She listed a wide range of innovations with food system applications: (1) technology to recreate animal-based products with

plant-based ingredients; (2) technology that influences delivery; (3) technology involving sensors, drones, and robotics; (4) food manufacturing technology; and (5) pest-identification technology. Abda said that BVG strives to understand specific challenges within the food industry and identify how technology can be applied to add value and to support evolution toward sustainability, environmental friendliness, and better health outcomes. She contended that artificial intelligence (AI) will be the leading technology influencing the food system, as AI affects every point in the supply chain. Consumers use AI through search engines to obtain information about food options, she pointed out. For instance, people search for answers to questions such as, “I am dehydrated; what should I drink?” In response, she said, the search engine might issue an AI-generated reply about water and electrolyte-based beverages. At the farm level, AI will play a role in determining which genetic traits to include in seeds to develop plants that withstand environmental change and enhance human nutrition, said Abda.

Ajay P. Malshe, Purdue University, highlighted the deeply personal experiences that people have with food, as exhibited in the comfort and memories often associated with food. He added that referring to food as medicine does not capture the personal space that food occupies. Malshe maintained that agriculture and the food supply chain should be secure, trusted, and resilient. The potential effects of misinformation and rapid changes—including geopolitical events—pose challenges to the food system’s security, credibility, and resilience, he observed. In the future, Malshe added, technologies will be needed that enable food production to be decoupled from water and land as much as possible. He reported that in the United States around 70–80 percent of the population lives in urban areas, yet only about 20 percent of food is produced in or near these locations. As the population continues to grow, Malshe continued, technologies that enable urban food production (e.g., urban farming, cellular agriculture) will be increasingly important to deliver food at points of need. He noted that cellular agriculture produces food through bioreactors and can be used to create new forms of protein that could complement current protein sources in the future.

Susan T. Mayne, former director of the Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition at the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, emphasized the potential of gene editing to address numerous challenges related to the food system. Crops can be genetically engineered or gene edited to be more resistant to effects of climate change, such as drought, she said. Moreover, the nutritional quality of food can be enhanced through gene editing. Food waste, which contributes to greenhouse gas emissions, could be reduced by protecting crops from emerging pathogens, thereby simultaneously shielding farmers from economic losses, she asserted. Despite the benefits gene editing offers, scientific misinformation and consumer lack of understanding

pose challenges to its application, Mayne continued. As demonstrated by the public response to genetically modified organisms, she said, efforts are needed to improve science communications through social media and other avenues. Gene editing—and its potential to address climate change, food waste, and nutrition needs—should be supported through effective communication efforts.

Xavier Morales, The Praxis Project, described how his organization collaborates with power-building groups nationwide that are working to transform systems, structures, and policies that underlie inequity or injustice. Food is a major area of injustice, he stated, as evidenced by the one-third of students experiencing food insecurity and the increasing demand for food bank services. Ironically, amid enormous amounts of food waste, people in the United States are going hungry. Thus, in addition to advancing technologies, parallel efforts should explore food inequities and develop a vision for the food system, he contended. Whether the vision is healthier people or food security for all, Morales continued, a vision could serve to center focus and efforts. He noted that the concept of Sankofa—looking to the past in order to move forward—can guide problem-solving by examining what has worked in the past that can be built upon and scaled.

Guy Poppy, UK Research and Innovation (UKRI), remarked that technology alone will not solve all of the issues facing the food system. He commented that data sharing involving both government departments and the private sector could be helpful in addressing these challenges. Achieving a large data signal enables early action and informs decision making. For example, he said, creation of digital twins (i.e., virtual models) supports real-time response to events. He noted that a large company based in Switzerland has more data about foods than do most government departments, indicating the potential value of data sharing. The combination of big data and AI holds potential for revolutionizing many aspects of the food system, Poppy maintained. Barrangou observed that all panelists noted a role for science and technology in creating solutions to food system challenges, and that Morales emphasized the importance of context in problem-solving.

CONTEXTUAL FOOD SYSTEM CHALLENGES

Barrangou highlighted contextual challenges facing the food system, including issues related to diversity, equity, and inclusion; access; affordability; trust; acceptance; communication; disinformation and misinformation; climate change; workforce training, acquisition, and retention; globalization; the global supply chain; and geopolitical forces. He asked about contextual challenges creating the greatest impediments to food system advancement. Morales replied that profit-seeking within a commercialized food system

leads to inefficiencies within communities. Efforts to optimize health and nutrition are not always inclusive, and many Americans contend with hunger and inadequate access to food, he said. Morales noted that the COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated inequities within the food system. He highlighted a pandemic-response program implemented in Zuni Pueblo, New Mexico, in which rain barrels and home garden supplies were distributed to all residents, enabling them to grow their own food during a period of food system disruption. Optimization should seek benefits for all people rather than financial profits, he maintained. Morales described his advocacy efforts to bring health and science data to the attention of legislators and regulators in order to change policy; powerful economic interests often oppose these efforts, and Morales noted that his organization loses far more battles for equitable policies than it wins.

Mayne emphasized the need to address social determinants of health, such as poverty, in ameliorating food system challenges. Obesity often starts in childhood and thus requires a focus on food and nutrition for young people, she asserted. Currently approved medical treatments, including glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) agonists, are not approved or targeted for younger children, a time at which obesity often begins, Mayne noted; what is more, she said, GLP-1 is not effective for all consumers in older age groups, which underscores the need to address social determinants of health. Mayne added that misinformation amplified by social media undermines all goals for the food system. For consumers to demand healthier foods and thereby affect market forces—which, in turn, would lead to shifts in food production—consumers need accurate information, she said.

Malshe discussed the effects of human behavior in the context of food system challenges. As an immigrant to the United States, he expressed his perplexity at the common practice of drinking iced beverages throughout the winter. Ice production requires energy, a process that emits carbon, and much ice is discarded. Yet, this common practice is not discussed in addressing climate change, he stated. Additionally, human behavior is demonstrated in the choice to eat out in restaurants, which could be related to the perception that eating out reflects a good quality of life, Malshe contended. Providing contrast, he recounted growing up in a frugal household in which delicious, nutritious food was prepared daily and eating at a restaurant was viewed as lavish. Furthermore, despite the large percentages of Americans experiencing food insecurity and the common experience of seeing unhoused people, he asserted, most people in the United States do not accept that the nation faces a hunger challenge. Malshe stated that these examples reflect the role of human behavior in practices and perceptions related to food.

Abda remarked that in determining its investments, BVG considers value creation not only in terms of generating profit, but also in the value

brought to people and society, including health and local economies. For example, Ocean Approved, a BVG portfolio company, has a consumer product brand, Atlantic Sea Farms, that sells seaweed food products. Based in Maine, the company grows seaweed in the ocean during wintertime, harvests in April, and blanches and processes the seaweed to create consumer products. Given that seaweed is a carbon sequestering sea vegetable, Abda noted, farming seaweed offers benefits to the environment. Moreover, seaweed is rich in iodine, a mineral that has decreased in some diets with the rise in popularity of non-iodized sea salt. Abda emphasized that when consumption of fortified products declines, it becomes important to identify replacement sources of nutrients. Atlantic Sea Farms also provides employment opportunities to the Maine lobstering community, which has been affected by the climate change–related migration of lobster further north, Abda explained. The company employs lobstermen and fishermen to plant kelp in the water through fishing lines inoculated with selected kelp seed spores and to harvest the kelp. Thus, the community retains jobs and continues to use materials and infrastructure developed in the area. This example illustrates how value creation extends beyond financial gains to offer benefit to the environment, health, and community, Abda added.

Poppy remarked that food waste is a pressing contextual concern. Various negative effects are associated with food production, and yet 30–40 percent of the food supply produced is discarded. He surmised that any other industry, such as the auto or pharmaceutical industry, would respond to that level of waste with prompt action to determine solutions. He added that in November 2023, King Charles III launched the Coronation Food Project, which is aimed at reducing food waste and hunger simultaneously by redistributing surplus food to food charities and community groups.

VISION FOR FOOD SYSTEM PROGRESS

Barrangou invited the panelists to imagine the Food Forum’s 60th anniversary and to anticipate what topics and accomplishments will emerge in the interim. Abda commented on the high level of system coordination that will be required to achieve substantial accomplishments within the interconnected food system. Technology offers new possibilities, but an innovation will be adopted only if industry sees potential value in its application, she stated. It will be necessary to adopt technology at scale to create value for consumers in terms of health, efficiency, and systems optimization; this scaling will require system coordination. Abda continued that technology integration is a challenge that calls for a willingness to initiate and navigate change, which can be fostered through incentivization and funding. The pressing need to ameliorate climate change calls for the prioritization of

efforts to coordinate the system and usher in solutions, Abda contended. She stated her hope that a collective mindset focused on the benefit of key players across the food value chain will yield substantial accomplishments over the next three decades.

Malshe echoed the need for integration, specifying that horizontal integration—across physical technology and platforms, digital operations and system interoperability, and sustainability—should be coupled with vertical integration of micronutrients. He emphasized that innovative physical technology often requires a minimum of 8 years to move from ideation to a realized commercial launch platform. In contrast, the hunt for digital technology “unicorns” (i.e., startup companies that achieve valuation of $1 billion) shortens the time allocated to developing a new digital technology idea to approximately 2 years, said Malshe. Thus, digital technology is more likely than physical technology to accelerate transformation. He predicted that a focus on sustainability will become more widespread with the increasing influence of the younger generation, which is accustomed to climate change and war. Malshe stated that value does not need to be created, because value already exists within the younger generation, and this generation will catalyze transformation.

Mayne shared a vision for 30 years hence in which market forces change the food system. Currently, food companies produce food that meets consumer demands and is profitable. Therefore, creating demand for nutritious, healthy, safe foods would exert market force on companies, she maintained. Industry, government, consumer groups, researchers, and academics could collaborate holistically to identify a path in generating market forces. In September 2022, the White House released The National Strategy on Hunger, Nutrition, and Health, which outlines U.S. initiatives to change the food system. Mayne underscored that subsidies could be better leveraged in driving market forces to a healthy, nutritious, and safe food supply.

Morales asserted that in 30 years, people will likely realize that efforts to solve a social problem through science and technology is too narrowly focused. Economic power and systems mapping tools should be considered during the exploration of why some people do not have enough food in an advanced technological society, he stated. Subsidies are an important lever, but despite the common knowledge that fruits and vegetables are healthy, the majority of U.S. subsidies support commodities that are not as healthy, said Morales. For instance, he noted, an article by Tillotson (2004) indicated that consumption of subsidized commodities increases rates of metabolic syndrome, heart disease, and stroke. Support is needed for policies and subsidies that align with recommended dietary guidelines. Morales described his vision for the next three decades as including the collective realization that technological solutions do not solve social problems, a shift to cooperative problem-solving, and a shared goal of eradicating hunger for all.

Poppy’s vision of progress for the next 30 years features a 50 percent decrease in food waste and substantial movement toward diets that support the planet while maintaining health. He recounted speaking at an art school and encouraging the artists to use their mediums to convey powerful messages about needed change. Stating his optimism for the future, Poppy characterized Generation Z as agents of change, noting that some young people in the United Kingdom are radically changing their diets through conversion to veganism. He underscored the importance of ensuring adequate nutrition, such as sufficient intake of B vitamins, when changing diet. Some young people view health issues as concerns for their parents’ and grandparents’ generations, but decisions made during youth can affect long-term health. Poppy highlighted a need to support members of the younger generation both in their push for change and in maintaining their health; doing so will enable them to convert more and more people to diets that are healthy for humans and for the environment.

HEALTH SPAN, NUTRITION, AND BEHAVIOR CHANGE

Naomi K. Fukagawa, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Beltsville Human Nutrition Research Center, recounted technology advances 30 years ago, during her time as a pediatric resident, that enabled most sick infants and children to be kept alive. However, she said, the process of adopting this technology did not consider the various effects of extensive intervention to extend life on pediatric patients and their families. She asked how technology and interventions in the food space can be balanced with the associated effects on people and on the planet to avoid unintended consequences of technological advances. For example, she wondered whether foods modified to have increased vitamin content could have unintended health consequences for certain populations.

Poppy referred to the Malthusian principle, which assumes that when population growth exceeds the rate of increase in food supply, it results in catastrophe (e.g., war, famine, natural disasters). Thus, it could be argued that technology to temporarily increase food supply could result in an even larger number of people facing eventual catastrophe. He cited the Chief Medical Officer’s Annual Report 2023, in which Chris Whitty, England’s chief medical officer, emphasized that medical interventions during youth and later in life have succeeded in extending longevity, but the health span has not seen proportionate increases in length. As a result, the duration of chronic illness in older age, which is often diet related, has increased in length. Poppy noted that many people have described the National Health Service as a “national treatment service” that provides medical interventions but does not provide services, such as dietary interventions, to keep people healthy. Instead, funding is funneled toward medical treatment and secondary medical care.

Poppy remarked that a carrying capacity is at play, and that perhaps a focus on interventions to extend life should shift to interventions that improve long-term health and reduce the gap between longevity and healthy lifespan. Barrangou commented on the unique potential of nutrition and healthy foods to prevent the onset of disease and suggested that investing resources toward prevention efforts could yield greater benefit than investment in curing disease. Compelling people to ask for healthy foods would lead to production of healthy foods, which in turn could decrease disease and improve the health span, he maintained. Morales cautioned that a calculation of carrying capacity is contingent on societal factors. For instance, he said, the carrying capacity of a world full of people from the United States could be different than a world populated with people from Costa Rica.

Regarding behavior change as a disease-prevention mechanism, Morales emphasized that efforts to educate consumers about healthier options and to ensure those foods are available are at odds with strong industry forces that digitally market to children and promote unhealthy products through placement, pricing, and promotion. He gave the example of communities in California where soda is less expensive than water. He recalled that actress Jennifer Garner raised awareness about food deserts on a Today Show interview that featured a tour of Alpaugh, California. Ironically, the area surrounding this farming community grows half of the nation’s produce, yet Alpaugh’s lone grocery store does not carry a single fruit or vegetable. The focus on behavior change often overlooks environmental factors that do not support desired behaviors, said Morales. He proposed that efforts to change corporate behavior in terms of product promotion, pricing, and placement should accompany efforts to influence individual behavior.

CONSUMER AND INDUSTRY RESPONSIBILITY

Christian Peters, USDA Agricultural Research Service, asked about the responsibility of the consumer vis-à-vis the responsibility of the other components of the food system. Abda replied that many consumers want the food industry to offer healthier products featuring fewer ingredients that are natural, organic, and/or regenerative. The book The Omnivore’s Dilemma and documentary Seaspiracy reflect discourse on concerns about the food industry. Consumers want options they feel they are not getting, she stated. Furthermore, Abda continued, despite the Hispanic population being the fastest-growing portion of the U.S. population, mass retailers offer few Hispanic-originated foods. As an example, she described five stores that sell baked goods near her office in Boston—none of them carry concha, a traditional Mexican sweet roll, despite the substantial number of Hispanic employees who work in her building. The products that the

U.S. food industry produces and distributes domestically do not reflect the diversity of the U.S. population, said Abda. At the same time, she asserted, consumer demand is driving companies to bring more foods to market that have better effects on health and the environment, demonstrating the power of the consumer voice. Be that as it may, industry has more work ahead in meeting consumer demand, Abda contended.

Poppy remarked on the concept of “food citizenship.” The understanding that food choices affect climate and the environment leads some people to change their diets. He contended that self-identification as a “food citizen” could spur more rapid behavior change than identification as a consumer. Morales maintained that discussions of consumer responsibility must consider that consumers are diverse in their perspectives, economic power, agency, and access to healthy food. Some people living in communities where healthy foods are not readily available strive to eat the healthiest diet they can access within their environment. He recounted that during a conference presentation, a behavioral psychologist explained that people experiencing high levels of stress may begin their day with resolve to eat and drink healthy food, but mounting pressures throughout the day can erode that resolve. Thereby, a person’s level of agency and the extent to which they consider the health aspects of foods can vary across the day. Morales cautioned against a narrow focus on consumer responsibility and called for efforts to address social determinants of health and corporate responsibility.

NATIVE AMERICAN FOOD SYSTEMS

Christina Chauvenet, Newman’s Own Foundation, described Native American food systems as situated at the intersection of human health and environmental stewardship. Given the influence of subsidies and corporate profit on the foods available, she asked how Native American voices can be amplified to apply Native knowledge to problem-solving efforts. Malshe noted collaboration between Purdue University and Navajo nations on agriculture and food programs. The nexus of technology and food involves a social angle, he remarked. Food carries connections to history, traditions, cultures, and beliefs. Whereas technology changes quickly through the rapid launch of new products, upgrades, and software, many people continue to eat in adulthood the foods that they ate in childhood, said Malshe. Additionally, he said, the implementation of technologies that depend on natural resources face setting-specific challenges, such as water shortages in New Mexico and associated radioactive ground contamination. This raises the question of whether technologies can assist in decoupling dependency on natural resources, Malshe remarked.

ROLE OF THE WEALTHY IN CHANGE EFFORTS

A participant emphasized that not all consumers are created equal: a small minority of people have disproportionate levels of wealth and consumption of resources, thereby generating the largest carbon footprint. Despite the shifts in behaviors and attitudes evident in Generation Z, young people continue to idolize rich celebrities, not because of their actions but because of their wealth, he noted. Moreover, he said, even if the progression of climate change leads to lost food sources and creates climate migrants, the wealthiest people will likely continue to have adequate resources. He asked about efforts to address equity issues and to change the behavior of the richest 1 percent, who control vast amounts of wealth in the United States and around the world. Barrangou replied that some extremely wealthy people have funded organizations to address broad issues, such as the Jeff Bezos Earth Fund, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, and the Chan Zuckerberg Initiative. He characterized these as exemplary models of using influence and wealth to drive data-informed decisions, influence policies, and channel resources to solving substantial problems. These organizations foster social and science solutions that adopt a global perspective to help a large number of people, said Barrangou. Malshe commented that in the last 20–30 years, digital technologies have lifted many people out of poverty, with affluence reflected in worldwide obesity. He suggested that policies focusing on the middle 60 percent of the socioeconomic sector of society could yield real change for nutritional food habits.

CLOSING REMARKS

Barrangou thanked all Food Forum members, past and present, and symposium participants and contributors. He underscored the highly complex problems related to the food system that affect large numbers of key players. Both concern and optimism are present in the forum, he said, which comprises the “right people, the right place, and the right time” to address the myriad issues highlighted at the symposium. Satisfaction with the accomplishments of the forum over the past three decades can offer momentum for continued problem-solving of the grand challenges faced today, Barrangou concluded.