6

A Visionary Perspective on the Future of Food

The fifth session of the symposium featured a presentation on a vision for the future of food that explored the effects of the food system on health, the environment, and socioeconomics; provided an overview of the National Food Strategy in the United Kingdom; and outlined efforts to support transformation of the food system toward sustainability and human and planetary health. Guy Poppy, UK Research and Innovation (UKRI), described how regional, national, and local systems operate within the global food system, noting that some policy and fiscal levers can be used to initiate change at the local and national levels that are not at play at the global level. UKRI is an overarching body of a series of research councils and the largest public funder of research and innovation in the United Kingdom, investing £8 billion annually in research efforts. The organization brings together scientists from a variety of fields; those relevant to the food system include engineering, medicine, economics, social sciences, and biotechnology and biological sciences.

FOOD SYSTEM EFFECTS ON HEALTH AND ENVIRONMENT

Poppy stated that a vision for a future food system is needed to address harmful consequences of the current food system on the planet and on general health. Although food system development has successfully met post–World War II caloric needs of the general population, it has done so at a cost to human and environmental health, he explained. More than 820 million people around the world are undernourished, he reported, and approximately 2 billion people face moderate or severe food

insecurity in relation to micronutrient deficiency or shortages in calories at certain periods of time. Simultaneously, approximately 2 billion adults and 380 million children have obesity or overweight, he said; rising rates of obesity worldwide increase risks for type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, noncommunicable diseases had a greater effect on death rates than communicable disease, Poppy continued. He noted that susceptibility to COVID-19 infection and related consequences of infection proved to be higher for people with obesity and/or who have certain diseases associated with obesity. In terms of environmental effects, Poppy said, the food system contributes one-third of emitted greenhouse gases, uses half of global habitable land, requires 70 percent of global freshwater use, and contributes 78 percent of eutrophication pollution to oceans and fresh water (Ritchie et al., 2022). Furthermore, he stated, livestock constitute 94 percent of global mammal biomass. Given these effects within the context of a changing climate and growing populations, Poppy urged, future human and planetary health calls for a new food system.

Poppy described global food system challenges. During a large U.K. research program running since 2019, he said, dramatic shifts in climate change and associated extreme weather events have occurred, making the research even more important. A move toward net-zero greenhouse gas emissions will require significant change within the food system to be successful. Poppy emphasized that agriculture should be part of the solution for achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions, rather than a part of the problem. Agricultural land use and associated loss of biodiversity and soil health pose risks to future harvests, he said, especially where land is subjected to the effects of climate change. Food security faces challenges from a growing population and shocks to the food supply. He underscored the extent to which global challenges related to nutrition, food safety, and social inequalities pose risks to human health and place further strain on a food system that is already overburdened.

NATIONAL FOOD STRATEGY

Poppy explained that a food systems approach considers the food supply chain within a complex context of political, health, environmental, societal, and economic systems. Within this interconnected network, he said, a focus narrowed to any one system can lead to unintended consequences in other systems (Parsons et al., 2019). Thus, a systems approach aids in avoiding harmful effects by identifying connections between systems, stated Poppy. Commissioned by the U.K. government, the 2021 National Food Strategy is the first independent review of England’s food system in

75 years (UKRI, 2023).¹ The review lays out a vision and plan for a better food system and includes 14 recommendations based within four central themes, Poppy stated. The first theme is escaping the “junk food cycle” and protecting the National Health Service (NHS) from the costs of diet-related health conditions associated with the current food system. Poppy noted that during the COVID-19 pandemic, the phrase “protect the NHS” became part of public health efforts encouraging people to modify their behavior. The second and third themes are reducing diet-related inequality and making the best use of land. Given that land is a limited resource and the population is growing, he explained, multiple needs for land will inevitably compete with one another. The last theme is creating a long-term shift in food culture, one that transforms the food system into a new state.

TRANSFORMING U.K. FOOD SYSTEMS

Poppy described how the Transforming U.K. Food Systems Strategic Priorities Fund—a partnership between UKRI and several governmental departments—aims to fundamentally transform the U.K. food system by centering healthy people and a healthy natural environment. He said the research program focuses on the United Kingdom while recognizing the global context of the food system. Dedicating £47.5 million to research efforts, the program will publish findings from funded projects as well as a blueprint for transforming the U.K. food system in an anticipated 2025 volume from the scientific journal Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. Poppy outlined the program’s goals:

1. transforming U.K. diets to be healthier and more sustainable;
2. changing the behavior of actors across the food system;
3. modeling interdependencies throughout the food system;
4. coproducing research between academia and stakeholders from national and local government, the private sector, and civil society organizations; and
5. developing a pipeline of skilled people able to apply critical interdisciplinary systems thinking to the food system.

He underscored the importance of coproduced research in achieving translation and intended effects within the food system. The workforce pipeline aims to produce 60 doctoral students trained in food systems thinking whose Ph.D. work focuses on the U.K. food system. He stated his hope that these students would go on to work within the food system,

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¹ Poppy acknowledged that although it is described as “national,” the strategy applies only to England and does not include Scotland, Wales, or Northern Ireland.

rather than in academia, to achieve the greatest possible effect on the food system.

Poppy noted the activities of the Transforming U.K. Food Systems program to date, such as establishment of the Center for Doctoral Training. Four large consortia with 5-year timelines and 12 smaller 2- to 3-year research projects are underway. Poppy described how the program has published several reports, including a study on mapping the U.K. food system that demonstrates the complexity of a network that contains approximately 600,000 food businesses. Another report explores the levers for food system transformation and discusses policies and efforts that have been successful within the United Kingdom or in other nations. And a report on public procurement of food examines the role of schools, hospitals, and other public service organizations in providing food within communities. In some cities, Poppy stated, more than half of all food is publicly procured, demonstrating an opportunity to make progress toward sustainability and health through school and hospital leadership. The program is supporting projects across the United Kingdom on issues including trade, food waste, eating practices, and food service, he said. And he added that the information generated by these projects is already being used to shape policy and exert influence on various parts of the food system.

Poppy described various Transforming U.K. Food Systems projects that are currently underway. A project based at Reading University—which relates to the National Food Strategy theme of escaping the junk food cycle and protecting the NHS—is exploring the use of fruit and vegetable incentivization in disadvantaged communities to improve access to and availability of produce. Poppy explained that increasing fiber and micronutrient intake within these communities can have effects on public health. However, he said, messaging on incorporating fruits and vegetables into diet does not necessarily translate to behavior change and health gains. Two projects aimed at reducing diet-related inequality use “health by stealth” methods of increasing the nutrient content in white bread, with one project using pulses and the other using higher-fiber wheat. Incorporating these products into the bread supply chain does not require a change in business model or in consumer preferences, as the shift in ingredients does not affect the taste of the bread, Poppy reported. He stated that two slices of modified bread can provide 40 percent of recommended daily fiber intake to a portion of the population consuming very little fiber and not responding to messaging about fruit and vegetable intake. White bread is widely consumed by this subpopulation; thus, he said, a modified product offers potential improvement in health. Poppy noted that these projects involve working with manufacturers, retailers, and consumer panels. Related to the theme of making best use of land, another project is developing bean seed, designed to thrive in the United Kingdom, that can be incorporated into processed

foods, ready-meals, and school lunches. And a project working toward the goal of creating a long-term shift in food culture is working with the city of Sheffield to incorporate aspects of public health, circular economy, and sustainability into a food plan, which in turn will inform food plans in cities across the United Kingdom. Poppy said that this effort involves procurement, advocacy, and health messaging.

INVESTING IN THE FUTURE OF FOOD

Poppy stated that UKRI spent £1.3 billion from 2016 to 2021 on food-related research and innovation. He led a UKRI Food Deep Dive to explore the organization’s role in supporting the food system, which found that investment was overly siloed in directing funding toward projects focused on single areas, such as food production, diet research, or food manufacturing. Given that food system transformation will involve multidisciplinary efforts, he said, research projects should be collaborative and consider various areas of the food system (UKRI, 2023), and even a small project conducted by agricultural scientists can consider how this work applies within the broader food system. Poppy noted that he is currently in discussions with the U.K. government regarding efforts to address obesity and about the future formulation of foods in the context of concerns about ultra-processed foods. Investing in partnerships, he continued, UKRI supports strategic research programs and infrastructure such as the U.K. Food Safety Network and the Biofortification Hub. He stated that UKRI’s international partnerships include the International Wheat Yield Partnership, which is working to increase the yield of wheat—the largest global source of calories—by 50 percent by 2035. And, he said, another project invests in venture capital–funded companies and small and midsize enterprises, which are often highly innovative in driving new ideas forward.

EXAMPLES OF FOOD SYSTEM SOLUTIONS

Poppy outlined various solutions to address issues related to health, the environment, and social economics, emphasizing that every initiative should be based in systems thinking. He said that Cathie Martin at the John Innes Centre has led research using gene editing and CRISPR-Cas9 on tomatoes, which she targeted because of their popularity among consumers and inclusion in a variety of food products (Li et al., 2022). Lack of sunlight contributes to a widespread vitamin D shortage in the United Kingdom that affects approximately one-third of the population during winter months, Poppy explained. Gene editing manipulates the enzyme that converts provitamin 3 to cholesterol, he said, which leads to an accumulation of vitamin D in the edited tomatoes. This effort builds on extensive work by

Martin’s team to manipulate the nutritional composition of tomatoes and provides an example of how gene editing can target nutrition in well-liked products. Poppy remarked that many people find it difficult to eat five fruits or vegetables a day, and the goal of eating two nutrient-dense fruits or vegetables each day would be easier to achieve.

Poppy described the obesity crisis, which is growing in the United Kingdom and worldwide. The United Kingdom’s treasury has expressed concerns about the effects of obesity on employee productivity and unemployment, he said. Current trends suggest that 51 percent of the global population will have overweight or obesity in 2035, Poppy reported, carrying an annual economic impact of more than $4 trillion, a sum comparable to the impact of COVID-19 in 2020 (World Obesity Federation, 2023). In the United Kingdom, NHS has begun prescribing glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) agonists to people with type 2 diabetes and high body mass index. Poppy surmised that for a small subset of people, GLP-1 agonists will be very advantageous, but these drugs alone will not solve the obesity crisis, and other solutions are needed.

Poppy discussed concerns related to ultra-processed foods, a topic that is frequently covered by the media. While some nutrition proponents argue that people should cook with fresh ingredients, he said, public surveys indicate that many people want to maintain the convenience of the current food system. Therefore, Poppy stated, changing the ways the foods are produced or formulated may be an avenue for providing foods that consumers want while reducing the risk of negative health effects associated with ultra-processed food intake. He said that shifting processing methods and ingredient contents while maintaining fibers that are important for gut microbiomes could potentially offer convenience and nutrition simultaneously. Poppy stated that more research is needed to understand whether the negative health effects seen with consumption of ultra-processed foods are caused by (1) the processing itself; (2) the content of ultra-processed foods, such as high levels of fat or sugar or the inclusion of other ingredients; or (3) a combination of processing and ingredients.

Poppy remarked on the use of innovation to meet environmental challenges associated with food production. Although fertilizers are important to current methods of food production, the Haber-Bosch process of creating fertilizers is highly energy intensive, he said. When an energy crisis rendered the Haber-Bosch process economically unfeasible, levels of carbon dioxide—a byproduct of Haber-Bosch—became so low in the United Kingdom that the food industry had no access to carbon dioxide, explained Poppy. He said that CCm Technologies has begun producing new low-carbon fertilizers by converting carbon captured from agricultural and industrial waste streams. Shown to be effective in a range of farming environments, these fertilizers are sold out until 2026. To demonstrate the high

demand, Poppy noted that a company that purchased low-carbon fertilizers from CCm Technologies has offered to build an additional manufacturing plant in exchange for access to the product. These developments exemplify how innovation can provide access to desired products while decreasing or eliminating the associated harmful effects, he said. Poppy stated that the Green Revolution tripled cereal yield, enabling food production to meet the needs of a growing population without drastically increasing land use (Ritchie and Roser, 2019). He also noted that additional research could enable regenerative agriculture practices to maintain needed yield while reducing negative effects to the environment.

Poppy explored socioeconomic aspects of global trading within the food system, noting that the United Kingdom is a net importer of food. When factoring in costs associated with public health and the environment, he said, some food products cost almost twice as much as the price charged to consumers. However, if the full economic cost is applied to product price, this change would likely be most burdensome to people who can least afford to change their diet, he contended. Additionally, the world is producing a food supply that is misaligned with most dietary guidelines, such as those in the EAT-Lancet report or in the U.K. Eatwell Guide, said Poppy. This raises the question of how to encourage manufacturers, retailers, and consumers to modify diets to align food supply and demand with human and planetary health, he said. Poppy related that, in November 2023, Juergen Voegele, vice president for sustainable development at World Bank, contended that increased funding is not necessarily required to promote transformation. Voegele cited the $800 billion spent annually by governments worldwide on food production incentives that have negative effects on climate and environmental outcomes. Poppy remarked that government subsidies could shift to incentivize a new food system that supports human and planetary health.

Whereas other sectors—such as energy, aerospace, and car industries—each have a clear, shared vision for increasing sustainability and a plan for delivery, the food sector has not developed a shared vision, said Poppy. Scientists often disagree about the direction needed within the food sector, he said, thereby generating confusion among the public. Poppy stated that a variety of ideas on how to arrive at or contribute to a determined endpoint is healthy; however, the lack of a shared vision to work toward inhibits the ability to develop plans of delivery. Furthermore, he asserted, without a collective vision, articulating needed actions for world leaders and the public becomes difficult, thereby limiting collaboration.

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