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Introduction and Overview of the Decadal Survey

The 2017 Earth science and applications from space decadal survey Thriving on Our Changing Planet: A Decadal Strategy for Earth Observation from Space (NASEM 2018; hereafter “the decadal survey”) established a vision for using space-based Earth observations in service of both science and society toward thriving on our changing planet. The decadal survey report provides community consensus priorities and recommendations to focus Earth observation investments in areas that are both scientifically challenging and have direct impact on how we live. Its recommendations were developed following an extensive community engagement process that involved review of hundreds of community-submitted ideas, detailed reports from five thematic panels,¹ and several crosscutting working groups.

The decadal survey identified 35 key science and applications questions to pursue over the decade and binned them into priority categories of Most Important, Very Important, and Important (Table S.1 in the decadal survey). The report recommended that the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) work together to implement an integrated program to advance these priorities (Recommendation 3.1 in the decadal survey).

The decadal survey recommended that NASA implement a set of space-based observation capabilities through five distinct program elements to establish an affordable, comprehensive, robust, and balanced program consistent with stipulated budgetary constraints (Box 1-1). Based on these identified science and applications priorities and consideration of the existing and planned international programs of record at the time, 14 “Targeted Observables”² were identified as observing system priorities for NASA (Table S.2 in the decadal survey). Five Targeted Observables were recommended for implementation via the Designated program element. Seven Targeted Observables were assigned to a proposed Earth System Explorer program element, with the committee recommending at least three to be competitively selected for implementation

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¹ The thematic panels were Global Hydrological Cycles and Water Resources; Weather and Air Quality; Marine and Terrestrial Ecosystems and Natural Resource Management; Climate Variability and Change: Seasonal to Centennial; and Earth Surface and Interior: Dynamics and Hazards.

² Specific missions and instruments were not recommended, in order to enable agencies to develop the most cost-effective and appropriate missions to meet observation goals.

during the decade. Three Targeted Observables were assigned to the Incubation program with the goal of accelerating their readiness for flight implementation.

The recommended NASA program was shown to fit within a stipulated budget profile (Figure S.2 in the decadal survey), and decision rules were provided in case budget shortfalls emerged.

Finding: The decadal survey recommended a program that was implementable, balanced, and carefully considered to enable advances in Earth system science and applications from space within the resources that were stipulated to be available during the decade.

In all, the decadal survey made 20 recommendations (see Appendix C for complete set). Among these recommendations, the decadal survey called for NASA, NOAA, and USGS to strategically coordinate to develop an integrated programmatic approach to address priority questions and objectives listed in the report, seek international partners, remove barriers to applied uses of remote sensing research, and advance data science.

The decadal survey recommended that NASA implement each of the five recommended program elements while managing development costs to prevent overruns in one program element from impacting other program elements. It was recommended that by the time of this midterm assessment, NASA would report on steps taken to ensure cost-effectiveness and that the midterm assessment would examine the

value of each Venture strand. NASA was called upon to develop a long-term plan for a sustained Earth system modeling (ESM) program and to take a leadership role in developing ESM coupled to observations. The decadal survey recommended guidelines regarding NASA’s programmatic balance, that NASA pursue mechanisms to reduce costs of continuity measurements, and that NASA specifically should constrain the cost growth of the Sustainable Land Imaging (SLI) partnership.

Recommendations to NOAA included the establishment of an internal Users’ Working Group to recognize the user base that would benefit from improved access to satellite data products, assessment of the benefits and risks of commercial data sources, and establishment of a framework for joint activities with NASA.

The decadal survey recommended that USGS should expand benefits of the SLI to users, evaluate ways to more effectively cooperate with or use emerging commercial capabilities, and expand the use of international observation programs that complement and enhance SLI.

OVERVIEW OF THE MIDTERM ASSESSMENT PROCESS

As charged by the statement of task (Appendix A), the committee examined progress toward the goals outlined by the decadal survey by reviewing accomplishments and assessing any broad changes that have occurred that would require the decadal survey recommendations to be reexamined. While the decadal survey encompasses NASA, USGS, and NOAA, the statement of task was limited to NASA with regard to recommended actions (Tasks 5 and 7) and to comments related to the vitality and diversity of scientists and engineers (Task 7).

The committee held multiple meetings in 2023 and early 2024 to review progress toward implementation of the decadal survey. To address Tasks 1 and 4, the committee met with various experts and stakeholders and was briefed on the latest advances in Earth observations and status of the implementation efforts related to decadal survey recommendations. The committee developed a request for information (RFI) to solicit feedback from the community related to the statement of task (see Appendix B). The RFI was posted online and links to it were widely distributed to ensure awareness and invite public comment. Numerous responses to the RFI were received and reviewed by the committee.

In assessing Tasks 2 and 4, the committee heard from various experts and stakeholders on the status of instruments, missions, and research activities spanning all of NASA’s program elements (including the Program of Record, Designated, Explorer, Venture, and Incubation program elements), and considered lessons learned from the process. Karen St. Germain, director of the NASA Earth Science Directorate (ESD), provided the committee with an extended review of the ESD program, particularly on the program of record. Tim Newman, USGS, and Steve Volz, NOAA, presented the status of their Earth observing programs and coordination with NASA to the committee. Waleed Abdalati, co-chair of the Earth System Observatory Independent Review Board (IRB), provided an overview of the IRB’s process and findings and discussed aspects of its report (ESO IRB 2022). Scott Braun (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center) presented progress on the Atmosphere Observing System.

The following chapters include assessments of the status of NASA ESD’s Program of Record, Designated, Earth System Explorer, Earth Venture, and Incubation program elements as they relate to decadal survey recommendations. In addition to NASA’s programs, the committee broadly considered the programs of NASA’s international partners and evidence for collaboration and partnership, in particular the Copernicus Sentinel program, including the Sentinel Expansion Missions and individual missions from the various international agencies. The committee also examined the actions taken by NOAA and USGS relative to the decadal survey recommendations.

The committee’s second meeting featured two panel discussions to assist the committee in addressing Task 7. Wanda Ward (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign) and Fran Bagenal (University of Colorado

Boulder) spoke on diversity in leadership of competed space missions, followed by Wanda Sigur (Lambent Engineering) and Charlie Bolden (Charles F. Bolden Group), who spoke about assessing the health and vitality of the ESD’s research communities. These panel discussions were followed by presentations to address Tasks 2 and 3, from Duane Waliser (Jet Propulsion Laboratory [JPL]) on developing a framework for continuity of climate observations and a presentation from Tim Newman (USGS) on Landsat Next. The meeting also included a series of presentations about progress on projects in the Designated program element, including presentations from Dave Schimel (JPL) on the status of Surface Biology and Geology, from Paul Rosen (JPL) on the Surface Deformation and Change and the NASA-Indian Space Research Organisation Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR) mission, and from Frank Webb (JPL) on the status of Mass Change. These presentations included candid discussions on challenges the various teams have faced (e.g., COVID-19 impacts, supply chain interruptions, inflation, and employee retention issues) along with discussions of how each effort has evolved since the release of the decadal survey.

The third (fully remote) committee meeting included a panel discussion related to Task 1 on the coordination of space-based Earth observations with Gerald Bawden (NASA), John Worden (JPL), and Mauro Facchini (Copernicus program, European Union), Steven Hamburg (Environmental Defense Fund), and Joe Mascaro (Planet Labs) representing the government, nongovernment, international, philanthropic, and commercial perspectives.

The fourth meeting was devoted to preparation for writing this report and assignments. However, the committee did have a brief conversation with Dr. St. Germain on budget questions and about some of the decadal survey missions and instruments and their progress. Several closed-session follow-up meetings of the committee were held for report writing.

OVERVIEW OF THE REPORT

Chapter 2 discusses the status of NASA’s Earth Science program, including progress on the Program of Record, major scientific discoveries and technical advances, and changes in the operating environment since the decadal survey’s release. It addresses items 1 and 3 in the statement of task.

Chapter 3 assesses the degree to which the programs of NASA, NOAA, and USGS address the strategies, goals, and priorities outlined in the decadal survey and assesses and provides guidance on the impact and effectiveness of Earth science programs (including research, applications, data systems, and technology) in implementing the decadal survey recommendations, synergies, and portfolio balance. It addresses items 2, 3, and 4 in the statement of task.

Chapter 4 explores opportunities for improving alignment with decadal survey priorities during the remaining decadal interval, addressing item 5 in the statement of task.

Chapter 5 discusses opportunities for enhancing the vitality and diversity of the Earth science workforce as well as opportunities for preparing for the next decadal survey and beyond, addressing items 6 and 7 of the statement of task.