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Recommendations from Thriving on Our Changing Planet: A Decadal Strategy for Earth Observation from Space

The following recommendations retain their original numbering from the 2017 Earth science and applications from space decadal survey (NASEM 2018).

Recommendation 2.1: Earth science and applications are a key part of the nation’s information infrastructure, warranting a U.S. program of Earth observations from space that is robust, resilient, and appropriately balanced. NASA, NOAA, and USGS, in collaboration with other interested U.S. agencies, should ensure efficient and effective use of U.S. resources by strategically coordinating and advancing this program at the national level, as also recommended in the 2007 Earth Science and Applications from Space (ESAS) decadal survey.

Recommendation 2.2: NASA—with NOAA and USGS participation—should engage in a formal planning effort with international partners (including, but not limited to ESA, EUMETSAT, and the European Union via its Copernicus Program) to agree on a set of measurements requiring long-term continuity and to develop collaborative plans for implementing the missions needed to satisfy those needs. This effort to institutionalize the sustained measurement record of required parameters should involve the scientific community, and build on and complement the existing domestic and international Program of Record.

Recommendation 3.1: NASA, NOAA, and USGS, working in coordination, according to their appropriate roles and recognizing their agency mission and priorities, should implement an integrated programmatic approach to advancing Earth science and applications that is based on the questions and objectives in Table 3.2, “Science and Applications Priorities for the Decade 2017–2027.”

Recommendation 3.2: NASA should implement a set of space-based observation capabilities based on this report’s proposed program (which was designed to be affordable, comprehensive, robust, and balanced), by implementing its portion of the Program of Record and adding observations described in Table S.2, “Observing System Priorities.” The implemented program should be guided by the

budgetary considerations and decision rules contained in this report and accomplished through five distinct program elements:

1. Program of Record. The series of existing or previously planned observations, which must be completed as planned. Execution of the ESAS 2017 recommendation requires that the total cost to NASA of the Program of Record flight missions from fiscal year (FY) 2018 through FY 2027—October 1, 2017, through September 30, 2027—be capped at $3.6 billion.
2. Designated. A program element for ESAS-designated cost-capped medium- and large-size missions to address observables essential to the overall program, directed or competed at the discretion of NASA.
3. Earth System Explorer. A new program element involving competitive opportunities for cost-capped medium-size instruments and missions serving specified ESAS-priority observations.
4. Incubation. A new program element, focused on investment for priority observation capabilities needing advancement prior to cost-effective implementation, including an Innovation Fund to respond to emerging needs.
5. Earth Venture. Earth Venture program element, as recommended in ESAS 2007, with the addition of a new Venture-Continuity component to provide opportunity for low-cost sustained observations.

Recommendation 3.3: NASA should manage development costs for each flight program element (including the Program of Record committed to prior to this report), and for each project within the Designated program element, so as to avoid impact to other program elements and projects.

• Innovative cost reduction, through programmatic or technological advances and partnerships, should be sought and incentivized where possible.
• By the time of the Midterm Assessment, NASA should report on steps it has taken (e.g., use of innovative approaches or partnerships) to ensure cost-effective development in each program element, and if or how these steps translate to increased science opportunity across the program.
• NASA should consult its standing scientific advisory committees if the project cost of the Program of Record is expected to grow to consume more than $3.6 billion in the FY 2018–2027 decade, if more than one mission in this decadal survey is delayed more than 3 years, or upon premature loss of a mission in the Program of Record or one required to make the measurements of this decadal survey.
• When appropriate, cost-effective, and consistent with recommended cost caps, NASA should consider instrument and mission designs that can increase science/applications return by combining Targeted Observables having common measurement technologies.

Recommendation 4.1: NASA, NOAA, and USGS should reduce barriers to applied uses of remote-sensing research and seek innovative ways to accelerate the transition of scientific research into societal benefits.

Recommendation 4.2: To ensure continued advances in modeling in conjunction with Earth observation:

• NASA should develop a long-term strategic plan for a strong sustained commitment to Earth system modeling in concert with observations. Success in observation-driven modeling holds the key for maintaining the end-to-end capability that has served NASA well in its effectiveness and service to society.

• NASA, in collaboration with NOAA, should take a leadership role in developing fully coupled ESMs that assimilate comprehensive satellite, aircraft, ground-based, and in situ observations to advance understanding of the Earth system.
• NOAA should develop a close partnership with NASA and other agencies to lead the Next-Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) effort in developing the next-generation cloud-permitting, fully coupled ESMs with advanced data assimilation and NOAA’s sustained global ocean observing system for enabling subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting and seamless weather-climate prediction.

Recommendation 4.3: NASA, NOAA, and USGS should continue to advance data science as an ongoing priority within their organizations in partnership with the science/applications communities by (1) identifying best practices for data quality and availability; (2) developing data architecture designs that are effective and agile; and (3) exploring new data storage/dissemination strategies to facilitate more interdisciplinary collaborations.

Recommendation 4.4: NASA should complete planned improvements to its Global Geodetic Observing System sites during the first half of the decadal survey period as part of its contribution to the establishment and maintenance of the International Terrestrial Reference Frame.

Recommendation 4.5: Because expanded and extended international partnerships can benefit the nation:

• NASA should consider enhancing existing partnerships and seeking new partnerships when implementing the observation priorities of this decadal survey.
• NOAA should strengthen and expand its already strong international partnerships, by (1) coordinating with partners to further ensure complementary capabilities and operational backup while minimizing unneeded redundancy and (2) extending partnerships to the more complete observing system life cycle that includes scientific and technological development of future capabilities.
• USGS should extend the impact of the Sustainable Land Imaging (SLI) program through further partnerships such as that with the European Sentinel program.

Recommendation 4.6: NASA ESD should employ the following guidelines for maintaining programmatic balance:

• Decision Rules. Needed adjustments to balance should be made using the decision rules included in this report.
• Flight Versus Nonflight. Flight programs should be approximately 50–60 percent of the budget.
• Within Nonflight:
  • R&A Program. Maintain at its current level of the ESD budget.
  • Technology Program. Increase from its current level of 3 percent to 5 percent of the ESD budget.
  • Applications Program. Maintain at its current level of the ESD budget.
• Within Flight:
  • Program Elements. Ensure that no flight program element is compromised by overruns in any other element.

• New Versus Extended Missions. Continue to use the present method of “senior review,” consistent with guidance from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM, 2016a).¹
• New Measurements Versus Data Continuity. Lead development of a more formal continuity decision process (as in NASEM, 2015) to determine which satellite measurements have the highest priority for continuation, then work with U.S. and international partners to develop an international strategy for obtaining and sharing those measurements.
• Mission-Enabling Investments Versus Focused Missions. Other than additional investments in the Technology program and the new Incubation program element, no change in balance is recommended.

Recommendation 4.7: NASA should make the following scope changes to its program elements:

• Technology Program. Establish a mechanism for maturation of key technologies that reduce the cost of continuity measurements.
• Applications Program. Redirect a small portion to new funding opportunities that focus specifically on taking early-stage ideas and exploring how to move them into applications, including co-sponsorship with NOAA and USGS.

Recommendation 4.8: The Midterm Assessment, with a longer program history than is available to ESAS 2017, should examine the value of each Venture strand and determine whether the cadence or number of selections of any strand should be modified. In particular, the Venture-Suborbital strand should be compared to the approach of executing comparable campaigns through the research and analysis program to assess which approach serves the community better.

Recommendation 4.9: NESDIS, working through its Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) and National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) should establish an internal Users’ Working Group (including cooperative institutes and other NOAA partners) to (1) recognize the breadth of the potential user base beyond the National Weather Service that would benefit from improved access to satellite data products; and (2) work in partnership with those users to prioritize requirements and how they might best be met.

Recommendation 4.10: NOAA should further leverage use of NASA, USGS, and international satellite observations to meet diverse needs of its line organizations, including those unrelated to weather—and thus not lose the opportunity to capitalize on substantial investments made by other organizations. As one step to accomplish this, NOAA should establish a budget line (similar to what is done for JPSS and GOES-R) in order to (1) facilitate access to and use of data from these non-NOAA sources and (2) demonstrate resulting benefits through broadened collaboration with the NASA Applications and similar programs.

Recommendation 4.11: NOAA should establish itself among the leading government agencies that exploit potential value of commercial data sources, assessing both their benefits and risks in its observational data portfolio. It should innovate new government/commercial partnerships as needed to accomplish that goal, pioneer new business models when required, and seek acceptable solutions

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¹ National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Extending Science: NASA’s Space Science Mission Extensions and the Senior Review Process. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/23624.

to present barriers such as international partner use rights. NOAA’s commercial data partnerships should ensure access to needed information on data characteristics and quality as necessary and appropriate, and be robust against loss of any single source/provider if the data are essential to NOAA core functions.

Recommendation 4.12: NOAA should establish, with NASA, a flexible framework for joint activities that advance the capability and cost-effectiveness of NOAA’s observation capabilities. This framework should enable implementation of specific project collaborations, each of which may have its own unique requirements, and should ensure (1) clear roles, (2) mutual interests, (3) life-cycle interaction, (4) multidisciplinary methodologies, (5) multielement expertise, and (6) appropriate budget mechanisms.

Recommendation 4.13: USGS should ensure that its process for understanding user needs is continued and enhanced throughout the life of the Sustainable Land Imaging (SLI) program. The studies and surveys that USGS has done to document the scientific and operational uses of Landsat should be repeated at appropriate intervals, so that progress can be tracked, and these studies should be broadened to incorporate the other components of the SLI program.

Recommendation 4.14: NASA should constrain cost growth in the development portion of the Sustainable Land Imaging (SLI) partnership, and ideally reduce cost from one generation to the next. USGS should ensure budget growth is minimal, to avoid strain on the overall USGS budget.

Recommendation 4.15: Partnerships and user communities associated with Sustainable Land Imaging (SLI) program should be protected and continue to expand. USGS should:

• Ensure and continue to expand the benefits of SLI for its scientific and operational user communities.
• In partnership with NASA, further evaluate ways to more effectively cooperate with or use emerging commercial capabilities for data archiving and dissemination and for imagery acquisition.
• Work with NASA and international partners, continue to expand the use of international observation programs that complement and enhance SLI.