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Honing the Message

At the beginning of the discussion period, forum moderator Deanne Bell reflected on her experiences as a television communicator. Sustainability is a very complex concept, and the actions needed to achieve sustainability will be comparably complex. Yet people often need a straightforward indicator, such as a sustainability score on a product, to guide their decisions, she pointed out. How can the complexity of the issue be resolved to the point of “simplicity, clarity, and cohesion”?

Majumdar, who joined the forum presenters for the discussion, began by reiterating and supporting several of the points made earlier in the forum. “We should have a constellation of satellites, plus land- and ocean-based measurements,” he said. Furthermore, these data should be publicly available and not privatized, “because this is really for the public good.” Entire supply chains should be studied and understood to help governments and consumers make decisions. As an example, he cited a system developed by professors at Harvard and Oxford called E-liability that allows organizations to produce real-time, accurate, and auditable data on their total direct and supplier emissions for any product or service.¹ “Once you have those kinds of things, the whole supply chain can be worked out. Those are absolutely necessary.”

Majumdar also supported the idea of international carbon standards to enable a system on which the current trading of carbon credits could build. Today, most such systems are voluntary. Standards, which could be developed by a government agency or by a nonprofit organization, would help governments and companies invest in sustainability.

Allen called attention to the quality as well as the simplicity of the information provided to the public. For example, methane emissions mea-

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¹ More information about E-liability is available at https://e-liability.institute/what-is-e-liability.

surements in some countries are exceedingly thorough, but in other countries the measurements may be much less reliable. “I may be able to generate a number, but how do I get an indication of what the data quality is? That’s a challenging problem.”

On that note, Kapnick observed that multiple measures of important environmental indicators are needed to provide both reliable and straightforward measures. “There are limits to different technologies,” she said. For example, satellites can produce measures of methane releases, but on-the-ground measurements are also needed. Layering on different reporting methods would provide confidence in the measures that are used.

She also observed that measurements are not always going to be reducible to one number. “That is going to be a communication challenge for people to understand the nuance and the complexity of these sustainability challenges, especially as we move into how we adapt and build resilience.”

Erdem pointed to the need for global planning to convey simple and straightforward messages. “So many things need to line up for us to slow down global warming,” he said. “A global effort to strategize and act on a plan, as opposed to just having commitments, is required to be successful in the future.”

STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT

In response to a question about how stakeholder engagement carried out by engineers and others can lead to more informed and sophisticated messaging about sustainability, Kapnick cited NOAA’s Climate Adaptation Partnerships (CAP)/Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) program, which is designed to expand the regional capacity to adapt to climate impacts.² These centers take not only a top-down approach of providing information to communities but also seek bottom-up engagement with communities to build plans. In all communities, and especially in underserved communities, these plans need to reflect multiple issues to have longevity, she said. “If you develop one idea for one thing and spend money on it but it’s too complex so that people can’t use it or support it, it will die

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² More information about the program is available at https://cpo.noaa.gov/Divisions-Programs/Climate-and-Societal-Interactions/CAP-RISA.

as soon as the money goes away.” NOAA also works on coastal resilience through its Sea Grant program, which combines federal information and funding with state and local initiatives to build coastal resilience.³ That program, too, seeks community engagement toward the goal of long-term resilience.

Such partnerships are essential to success. “It’s one thing to develop vaccines—it’s an entirely different thing to get people vaccinated,” said Majumdar. “Things move at the speed of trust, and building trust . . . takes time.”

People and communities are increasingly ready and eager to be engaged as threats of climate change have become more obvious and dire, several of the forum participants observed. “I don’t have to explain to the general public or to a company that you need to think about this risk,” said Erdem. “It’s happening today.” When he was recently visiting Hong Kong, said Majumdar, 25 percent of the city’s average annual rainfall occurred in one day. People do

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³ More information about the program is available at https://seagrant.noaa.gov.

not have to be told that such events are climate related. “They have a gut feel that this is different.”

Climate change is already having an effect on quality of life in terms of food security, weather disasters, loss of infrastructure, and wildfire smoke, Kapnick added. The floods in Pakistan in the summer of 2022, for example, left millions of people displaced. Climate security experts are even starting to discuss the possibility of mass migrations as climate change makes some parts of the world uninhabitable. “You have places where, due to lack of food, lack of water, lack of infrastructure, people will just leave.” People are already feeling the impacts of climate change every day and know that the effects will get worse, she said. “The emotional desire to do something is at a peak that I’ve never seen before.”

MAKING THE TRANSITION

The transition to a sustainable energy system will be a massive undertaking that will take decades, the forum participants agreed. People will continue to use oil, gas, and even coal into the future, adding to the carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere, Majumdar pointed out. Every country and region has initial conditions and boundary conditions that are different. “The practical reality is that we will be using fossil fuel.”

But “the Stone Age didn’t come to an end because of a lack of stones,” he added. It ended because people devised better solutions to their problems. Majumdar particularly urged the electrification of light-duty vehicles, which will reduce air pollution even though energy will be required to make batteries. Decarbonizing the grid is another way to reduce emissions. “The oil and gas companies that I talk to say that the peak demand in oil will be this decade, or maybe in the transition from this to the next decade.”

As has been the case with capitalism, the transition to sustainability will be one of creative destruction, said Erdem. People will need to change jobs, for instance, as fossil fuel use drops. “They need to know that now, and it needs to be in our messaging.” The United States will also need to do more than other countries given its past contributions to the problem and its continued reliance on fossil fuels. “That will be a major shift. It’s all about trade-offs.”

Majumdar also emphasized the geopolitical nature of the transition. “Most of the emissions have come from the United States, if you look at the

cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide.” Yet the worst impacts are going to occur elsewhere, creating a moral obligation for the global north to support financially the global south. The mechanisms to do that at the needed trillion-dollar level are still not known, but “carbon standards—trusted standards—are absolutely needed to manage this potentially volatile geopolitical issue.”

Adding to the volatility is the possibility that the warming will be worse than many people have anticipated. “Let’s be honest,” Majumdar said. “We have a risk of crossing 2 degrees to 2.5 or 3. We don’t know what that world looks like, and we need to make sure that people are protected.”

POLICY OPPORTUNITIES

On the technological frontiers of sustainability, the United States is the equal of any country in the world, Majumdar said. “As far as technology is concerned, the world is relatively flat. The battery that is made in China and the battery that is made here are not that much different. But in the policy landscape the world is not flat.”

The sustainability incentives the federal government has provided in legislation such as the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act are important, but other countries have introduced regulations as well as incentives, several

forum participants pointed out. In that sense, the Inflation Reduction Act should be seen as a critical down payment, but future legislation will need to include sticks as well as carrots. “If you want to move fast, as we have seen in solar and wind, you need investment and production tax credits that are the carrots, and you need a renewable portfolio standard that’s a stick,” Majumdar observed. “You combine those and then it becomes predictable. You can go fast; it’s bankable.”

The most economically efficient way to reduce carbon dioxide emissions is to put a price on those emissions. A revenue-neutral carbon tax would give the money generated back to people through payroll offsets or Social Security payments, which would not hold back the economy. But “what has happened?” asked Majumdar. Because of the political situation, “nothing.” The Inflation Reduction Act originally contained a clean energy standard, but that was one of the first things dropped from the bill. “We have to keep at it,” Majumdar insisted. “We cannot be sitting on the sidelines and saying that the carrots are going to be enough.” One possibility is a combined federal-state partnership such as was involved in the construction of the US electricity grid. Under such a plan, the federal government could offer states funding if they institute regulatory policies that curb carbon emissions. Said Majumdar, “That’s a good state-federal partnership that could really move the needle.”

The business world needs predictable long-term signals to optimize their decisions, the panelists said. When a policy changes over time, businesses have a hard time allocating assets. Kapnick pointed out that almost a third of emissions globally are already covered under a carbon tax or a cap- and-trade system. “Other economies are using that to figure out how they can efficiently allocate capital.”

A border adjustment tax that would reduce incentives for countries without carbon taxes to undercut others has also been discussed. However, in its currently discussed form it does not acknowledge the fact that different countries are starting from different initial and boundary conditions, Majumdar pointed out. A border adjustment carbon tax would need to give countries room to grow without penalizing them.

Specific technologies, such as small modular nuclear reactors, could also be the target of policy. For example, loan guarantees could make the first such reactors less expensive, which would reduce the risk of development

and deployment. The waste problem for nuclear reactors remains a thorny issue, but other countries are managing their nuclear wastes. “The technology is doable,” said Majumdar. “We do it for the waste from the nuclear navy. Civilian [waste] is what we need to figure out.”

In response to a question from Bell about the governmental organizations overseeing federal work on sustainability, Kapnick observed that there is an Office of Domestic Climate Policy within the Executive Office of the President. Originally focused on mitigation, the office has expanded its policy domain with the recent release of the National Climate Resilience Framework. The Office of Science and Technology Policy, also within the Executive Office of the President, is another body charged with overseeing the federal effort. Majumdar added that there is no Department of Climate or Department of Sustainability in the federal government, but the nation cannot wait for such an agency to be established. “We have the reality of what already exists: NOAA, USGS, the Department of Energy, NSF. Everyone has equity in this. The question is coordination.” The White House is nominally the coordinator of policies and actions carried out by federal agencies, but “the problem with the White House model is that they don’t have any budget,” Majumdar observed. “The budget belongs to the agencies. So how do you get the White House to coordinate in such a way that all the agencies are working in sync with all the budget authorities that they have? Giving authority without the budget, frankly, is weakening.”

Kapnick added that issues of taxation, both domestically and internationally, are related to food security, water security, damage to the built environment, livability, and many other influences on quality of life. “In every country, depending on where they are in the world and the experience of climate change that they will have, [advancing sustainability] will lead to different responses of what they’re doing within their own society, but also the . . . solutions that are available to them.”

Majumdar particularly called attention to the burden that will be placed on low-income communities around the world. The costs of reducing emissions should be “on the affluent people in the world,” he stated. “If addressing climate change does not improve the quality of life of people in poverty and bring them out of poverty, it will be very hard to achieve what we’re trying to do because the people will not accept it.”

Erdem agreed that policies need to account for less affluent populations, whether in the United States or internationally. “If we follow through and come up with a carbon tax, it will basically flow through to product prices, so everything is expected to be more expensive. . . That’s going to impact how low-income populations spend their money.” Policies are needed that will protect people who will be disproportionately affected by climate change, which requires both good policies and extensive planning.

New technologies also offer new opportunities. People around the world access information and an increasing range of products digitally, observed Majumdar. To cite just one example, the public digital infrastructure that has been developed in India now has the highest level of payments in the world. “Can we use that infrastructure for climate adaptation?” he asked. Many people below the poverty line internationally do not have the infrastructure to access electricity or clean water, but digital technologies could help them leapfrog from the 19th century into the 21st century. “We need a digital infrastructure to be able to access people and look at the demand side,” said Majumdar. “For that, you need entrepreneurs around the world to take the digital infrastructure and adapt it to their local communities.”

PERSONAL ACTIONS

Steps toward sustainability can be collective, such as the creation of policy. But people also want to know what they can do personally to make a difference.

As one metric that can provide a feedback loop for individuals, Erdem observed that his company is tracking the carbon footprints of its employees. “When I’m trying to decide to fly, travel, purchase anything, I get an estimate of the carbon impact of my decision, and then my business line is priced internally.” That provides an incentive for him to minimize his carbon footprint.

Allen talked about individual energy use as a metric. “Every activity that we do, from the lights that are on in this room right now to our transportation choice, [should involve] having individual-level knowledge about what our energy consumption would be.” People have very little understanding of the amounts of either energy or materials that they use every day. “One interesting experiment that I have seen implemented at a university—not my own—is

during Earth Week to have students carry along a trash bag with them for the week and put every material that they would otherwise have thrown away into that bag and carry it. . . . That’s a really compelling message.”

Kapnick added that water consumption should be used as a metric. “I don’t think people realize how water is not necessarily a renewable resource,” she said. “We’re using water, especially groundwater, as insurance when we don’t have water on the land surface. In the United States and around the world, groundwater is running out because it takes years to millennia to be able to replenish it.”

Majumdar quoted Mahatma Gandhi, whose 154th birthday fell on the day of the forum: You have to be the change you want to see in the world. In the introductory class that he co-teaches at Stanford, the first question posed to students is how they could reduce their carbon footprint to the global average. “You immediately realize that food is a major emission,” he said. “If you go vegetarian for one day a week, and if everyone did that, that’s a huge impact.” Flying also generates a very large carbon footprint, which raises questions about reducing that use of fuel. The International Civil Aviation Organization has a goal of 10 percent blended biofuels, which would entail increased costs. But if those costs were passed down to consumers, the additional expense on a flight from Tokyo to London would be only about $20 to $30 per seat. “That should be part of the plan.”

Majumdar also pointed out that searches for “sustainable products” are going up worldwide. “People are looking for sustainability. The problem is [that] it’s very hard to say what is sustainable and what is not.” Especially for young people, “this is a real issue.”

Kapnick added that students are coming out of business schools and other institutions who only want to work at companies with commitments to sustainability. “People want to work at places that have missions to build the solutions for tomorrow.” Similarly, universities and other institutions, such as Stanford, are creating schools for sustainability and climate. “The places that create those key conditions to be able to build that innovation will be the places where economies and commerce will thrive.” Climate is “a systemic issue, but it also creates incredible opportunities.” For example, the US Patent and Trademark Office has a fast track for patents that involve the reduction, removal, or avoidance of greenhouse gas emissions. “We need to spur that innovation as fast as possible.”

Despite this room for individual action, “individuals can only go so far,” as Majumdar said. The US average carbon footprint is almost three times that of the global average. “You cannot just go down a factor of three.” Large-scale policy interventions are essential to realizing the change that is needed.

RESPONDING TO THE URGENCY OF THE PROBLEM

Invited by Bell to speak to the urgency of the problem, Kapnick said that every job has a sustainability component. “There are ways to incorporate how to think about sustainability in your job that then advance it forward. I task you to think about it, because if we really do believe that this is going to be the innovation of the future, there’s tremendous opportunity to make progress on this, even in our individual work.”

Allen noted that “what is desperately lacking in a lot of these discussions is a trusted voice.” The NAE is one of the few remaining trusted voices to which people can turn. “If asked to serve on a massive decarbonization study or review a 500-page report or further enhance the Academy’s role as a trusted voice, please do so.”

Erdem asked for more information and more precision “so we make better decisions as individuals and employees and companies.” Everyone needs to help, both by providing information and by acting on it.

Finally, Majumdar thanked the NAE for choosing sustainability as the topic for its 2023 forum. He also again called attention to the need for adaptation and protection of communities. Adaptation is a global issue as well as a domestic issue, and some communities are going to be hit much worse than others, especially as temperatures continue to climb. In particular, the behavioral issues involved in the upcoming transition need attention. “We need to figure out mechanisms to get people on board. . . . If we could pay attention to that, that will go a long way.”

As in previous years, the 2023 forum was insightful and informative, Bell said in her final comments. “And the action doesn’t stop here.”

“We need to align ourselves so that we’re all working toward the same effort in an efficient manner,” said Reyes. “We need to design for impact and be thinking about commercial scale. We need to make an impact with our designs. And, lastly, we need to fund for success—we need to have the funding available to be successful in our approaches.”

“We have to look at these from a systems perspective and at unintended consequences, even outside of energy distribution,” said McCarthy. “And the other thing that we haven’t talked at all about today: we have underserved communities in the United States. How are we going to bring them into all of this? We always talk about developing countries, but we’ve got some serious problems in the United States.”

“Energy justice is a big piece of this,” Halloran agreed. “We have the opportunity to design a grid that can serve everyone in the United States, an energy system that can serve everybody economically. And that’s what needs to happen.”

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