Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas (GHG) contributing to human-driven warming, behind carbon dioxide (CO2). Methane has an atmospheric lifetime of 9–12 years and is more than 80 times more potent than CO2 at trapping heat over a 20-year period, meaning that changes in atmospheric methane concentrations can impact the timing and magnitude of mid-century peak warming significantly. Together with zeroing out CO2 emissions, large reductions in methane emissions are needed to limit end-of-century warming to 1.5°C or 2°C with limited overshoot; however, global methane emissions continue to rise. Many well-established approaches reduce anthropogenic methane emissions at their source (i.e., emissions mitigation),1 and accomplishing these reductions must remain a top priority. But given the urgent need to limit both near- and long-term warming, and the many barriers to achieving needed mitigation at scale, researchers have begun to explore the concept of atmospheric methane removal (see Box S-1 and Figure S-1).
Conclusion: Together with reduced carbon dioxide emissions, rapid and sustained reductions in anthropogenic methane emissions are critical to limit warming in future decades. Atmospheric methane removal technologies, even if successfully developed, will not replace mitigation on timescales relevant to limiting peak warming this century.
In addition to GHG emissions mitigation, approaches that remove GHGs are also considered in policy planning scenarios as part of the portfolio to achieve net-zero GHG emissions. Large-scale deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR)—anthropogenic
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1 Examples of mitigation strategies for anthropogenic methane sources include leak detection and repair (fossil fuel sector); energy recovery or collection and flaring of landfill gas (waste sector); and feed changes, supplements, and breeding for livestock (agricultural sector). Mitigation technologies are not currently available for natural methane sources (e.g., wetlands, freshwater systems, geologic sources).
Atmospheric methane: Methane that is in the free atmosphere (currently about 2 parts per million). Methane in the atmosphere naturally converts to carbon dioxide via oxidation and has a lifetime of 9–12 years.
Atmospheric methane removal: Human interventions to accelerate the conversion of methane in the atmosphere to a less radiatively potent form or to physically remove methane from the atmosphere and store it elsewhere. The term “atmospheric methane removal” is also used when human interventions increase the sink and decrease the net flux from ecosystems to the atmosphere, or make this flux negative.
Methane emissions mitigation: Any human intervention to reduce methane emissions at the source, typically anthropogenic in origin.
Methane reactors: Purpose-built, physically bounded systems that use the active flow of air to capture or convert methane to a different chemical species with lower atmospheric warming potential.
Methane concentrators: Materials or devices that can separate or enrich methane with some degree of selectivity relative to other atmospheric components. A methane concentrator itself may not be a stand-alone form of atmospheric methane removal but may be a core component for enabling atmospheric methane removal technologies.
Surface treatments: Application of a catalyst to a built or other surface that contacts air naturally to convert methane to a different species with lower atmospheric warming potential.
Ecosystem uptake enhancement: An amendment or practice that augments the in situ net uptake of methane by or within primarily managed ecosystems but with potential to apply to natural ecosystems.
Atmospheric oxidation enhancement: Accelerated conversion of methane via the augmented abundance or lifetime of reactive species, such as chloride or hydroxyl radicals, in the free atmosphere. This includes activity in the troposphere and stratosphere of the Earth’s atmosphere.
activities that remove CO2 from the atmosphere and reliably store CO2 in geological, terrestrial, or ocean reservoirs or products—is needed to achieve net-zero targets and limit peak warming to below 2°C.
While CDR technologies have advanced over decades, analogous removal for other GHGs has not been considered. Given the potency and short atmospheric lifetime of methane, sustained removal efforts could potentially address or offset hard-to-abate anthropogenic or natural methane emissions, for which mitigation technologies are not currently available.
Research on methane removal is just beginning. Few relevant peer-reviewed publications exist, reflecting limited research investments to date. Compared with methane
mitigation or even CDR, for which decades of research have led to technologically and economically feasible solutions (in the case of methane mitigation) and early-stage demonstrations (in the case of CDR), atmospheric methane removal is in its earliest stages of discovery; while several potential technologies exist, information is limited, and many key questions remain unanswered. At this critical moment for decision making around climate action and investment, ClimateWorks Foundation requested an authoritative study on the state of knowledge about atmospheric methane removal.
This report assesses the need and potential for atmospheric methane removal and recommends research that would improve understanding. In interpreting its task, the Committee acknowledged that atmospheric methane removal, like any climate intervention, is fundamentally a sociotechnical problem. Any technological approach under consideration will be shaped by and have consequences for human societies. A useful knowledge base must therefore consider technology and humans in concert.
While the knowledge base around CDR can be informative, unique attributes of methane and methane removal technologies make CO2 and CDR imperfect analogs. Key differences relevant to this report include the following:
Climate action has many priorities, so it is necessary to consider why researchers, industry, governments, and communities would invest in atmospheric methane removal technologies. The Committee was tasked with exploring a range of use cases for research and development of atmospheric methane removal. For example, a technology gap exists in which no commercial mitigation technologies oxidize methane at concentrations below 1,000 parts per million (ppm) even though most methane emissions are found at concentrations closer to 2 ppm. Pursuing research on atmospheric methane removal would lower this threshold and expand opportunities for reducing methane emissions from more sources.
Achieving net-zero CO2 emissions is essential to stabilizing climate, but that alone may not be sufficient to limit warming to the Paris Agreement goal of “well under 2°C” with no or limited overshoot. In this context, another use case for considering atmospheric methane removal is the potential for a “gap” between the methane emissions reductions needed to meet climate goals and the technical potential for methane emissions mitigation—due in part to large and potentially growing, primarily natural methane emissions sources for which no mitigation technologies currently exist. This potential “methane emissions gap” has two components: the technical limitations for mitigation of anthropogenic methane emissions, particularly residual emissions from the agricultural sector, and anticipated increasing emissions from natural methane sources that could exacerbate the gap.
Conclusion: There will likely be a substantial methane emissions gap between the trajectory of increasing methane emissions (including from anthropogenically amplified natural emissions) and technically available mitigation measures, impeding emissions reductions needed to limit peak warming. The scale of carbon dioxide removal required to compensate for these residual methane emissions may not be feasible. Furthermore, it may not be appropriate to treat carbon dioxide and methane emissions reductions or compensatory removals as fungible, particularly for considering climate impacts in the near term.
The five atmospheric methane removal technologies considered in this report are described in Box S-1. These technologies capture a comprehensive range of approaches with the potential to reach effectiveness at atmospheric concentrations of methane (2 ppm). In this report, atmospheric methane removal technologies are categorized as either partially closed or open systems.2
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2 Partially closed systems—methane reactors and methane concentrators—are those bounded by physical barriers where the reactive species (e.g., catalysts) are retained inside the physical barrier, but air and energy are allowed to flow through the system. Open systems—surface treatments, ecosystem uptake enhancement, and atmospheric oxidation enhancement—are defined as those that lack a physical boundary, where reactive species or other management actions are introduced into the atmosphere or other environmental compartments.
The Committee assessed the five technology categories using limited available information against a set of criteria developed as indicators of the advancement of each toward a pathway for methane removal at atmospheric concentrations.
Table S-1 summarizes the current research status of each technology relative to 2 ppm atmospheric methane concentrations and the associated major technological challenges and opportunities. Based on the technology assessment, the Committee drew the following technology-specific conclusions:
Additionally, the Committee drew the following conclusions that are relevant to multiple technologies:
The Committee also considered issues cutting across all technology categories and drew the following overarching conclusions:
TABLE S-1 Summary of the State of Atmospheric Methane Removal Technology Research Relative to 2 Parts Per Million (ppm) Atmospheric Methane Concentrations
| Technology | Technically Feasible at ~1,000 ppm Today? | Technically Feasible at 2 ppm Today? | Technically Feasible Path to Working at 2 ppm, without Technological Breakthroughs? | Potential Technical Challenges | Potential Acceptability Challenges | Potential Technological Opportunities |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Methane Reactors | Yes, technologies in use | No known technology | Technological breakthrough needed (due to energy use and volume of air requirements) | Energy use, volume of air, and critical materials requirements | Potential land use disruptions (depending on scale of operation) and emissions from added energy and manufacturing needs | Novel materials and novel adsorption systems design; coupling with other forced-air systems could reduce energy needs |
| Methane Concentratorsa | Likely, but no known technology | No known technology | Technological breakthrough needed (due to methane’s physicochemical properties) | Identification of suitable materials, energy use requirements, and physicochemical properties of methane | Impacts of needed manufacturing and siting new infrastructure | Novel materials and novel adsorption systems design; potential to couple with other forced-air systems and/or methane reactors |
| Surface Treatments | Likely, but no technology in use | No known technology | Technological breakthrough needed (due to low temperature and low reactivity) | Large surface area requirements and durability | Possible by-products produced from removal process; impacts and exposures from energy and upstream material production and infrastructure implementation | Could enhance structure durability and provide local air quality benefits (with appropriate coating design) |
| Ecosystem Uptake Enhancement | Existing process, but no enhancement technology in use | Existing process, but no known enhancement technology in use | Likely | Potential reapplication needs, interactions with ecosystems, and unintended consequences for nutrient cycling and biodiversity | Connection with open natural systems may present significant environmental impacts (unintended consequences) and public contestation | Connection primarily with managed systems could provide potentially measurable co-benefits |
| Atmospheric Oxidation Enhancement | Existing process, but no enhancement technology in use | Existing process, but no known enhancement technology in use | Likely, but with large uncertainties | Large threshold for required material to be added to the atmosphere; continuous materials supply needed | Applications in the atmosphere may present significant environmental impacts (unintended consequences), both locally and globally, and public contestation | Could enhance atmospheric sink, which reduces impacts of fugitive hydrogen emissions |
a A methane concentrator itself may not be a stand-alone form of atmospheric methane removal but may be a core component for enabling atmospheric methane removal technologies.
The Committee underscores that atmospheric methane removal is an emerging area of research. Having assessed the currently available information in this report, the Committee recommends that assessing the potential for atmospheric methane removal requires a two-phase approach (see Figure S-2). In this first-phase report, the Committee has identified priority research questions that should be addressed within 3–5 years. With the results from this research, a second-phase assessment could more robustly assess the viability of technologies to remove atmospheric methane at 2 ppm—from the perspective of technical, economic, and broader social viability, and the potential for climate-scale impacts. Advances in the recommended research areas and a second-phase assessment would inform any decision to move from knowledge discovery into more targeted investment in additional research, development, and/or deployment. They would also inform possible off-ramps for technologies not meeting performance and/or
acceptability criteria. It is beyond this Committee’s purview to specify the mechanism, process, or outcomes of any future phase-two assessment.
Recommendation: A two-phase assessment of the need and potential for atmospheric methane removal is needed.
The research agenda is organized into foundational and systems research needs. The foundational research questions seek to fill knowledge gaps in basic understanding of atmospheric and ecosystem methane sinks, atmospheric methane removal technologies, and social dimensions of how publics and society would interact with research on atmospheric methane removal. The recommended foundational research not only would advance understanding of atmospheric methane removal but also would be an investment in filling knowledge gaps in other related fields, representing a cost-effective use of limited resources for research. The systems questions seek to address what developing and/or deploying atmospheric methane removal at scale would entail from technological and social perspectives. These foundational and systems research questions should be pursued in parallel to enable an informed phase-two assessment; this report prioritizes the questions that would be most useful to answer before a second-phase assessment.
In both phases, the recommended research areas should be integrative and transdisciplinary. The Committee recommends that research on atmospheric methane removal be funded through a convergent approach to maximize learning between, for example, social and biophysical sciences, and ensure that the outputs of the research do not remain siloed but are used and integrated by people from diverse fields.
The Committee suggests that a reasonable initial investment in basic science that would help society understand the prospects of atmospheric methane removal is in the range of $50 million–80 million per year over 3–5 years. A research program of this size would advance the five research areas recommended to inform a phase-two assessment.
Below, the Committee summarizes the five research areas around which the recommended research questions are organized.
Research on atmospheric and ecosystem methane sinks (and to a lesser extent methane sources) is needed to better understand the potential to enhance natural sinks for atmospheric methane removal, determine removal scales required for climate impacts, and enable MRV of atmospheric methane removal technologies. Research Area 1 includes the following sub-areas:
The knowledge base for atmospheric methane removal technologies—particularly their application and efficacy for atmospheric methane (2 ppm)—is very limited. Foundational research is needed on their technical potential and to inform each of the other recommended research areas. Research Area 2 identifies research needs for each technology:
Based on the technology assessment and research needs identified above, the Committee drew the following conclusions:
Conclusion: Currently available mitigation technologies that oxidize methane have a lower operational limit of ~1,000 parts per million (ppm). Pursuing research on methane removal at 2 ppm atmospheric methane concentrations would help lower this concentration limit as technologies are developed.
Conclusion: All research questions identified in Research Area 2 can be assessed without requiring deployment of atmospheric methane removal technologies. Technology research may require thoughtful demonstration efforts coupled with robust monitoring, reporting, and verification tools and structured means for public engagement.
Scientifically promising research can be slowed or forestalled by publics who appraise research as risky or harmful. Foundational knowledge is lacking across social and policy dimensions, inhibiting understanding of how research on atmospheric methane removal would affect and be affected by different publics. Research Area 3 includes the following sub-areas:
A body of systems research that lays out the frameworks and capacities to move forward will be needed should atmospheric methane removal technologies be developed and/or deployed. Research Area 4 prioritizes social-, justice-, and governance-related questions that would affect potential applications of atmospheric methane removal technologies. It would be informed by Research Area 3. Research Area 4 includes the following sub-areas:
Atmospheric methane removal technologies, if developed and/or deployed, would be introduced into a changing climate system with dynamic climate responses. Understanding how atmospheric methane removal technologies would complement, compete against, or interact with other climate responses would inform their optimal potential use. Research Area 5 includes the following sub-areas:
It is critical that research in this emergent space be conducted responsibly. The vision behind responsible research and innovation is that research is a transparent, interactive process through which society and researchers are mutually responsive to each other, making sure that science reflects social values. Responsible research and innovation involve democratizing intent and making the research process anticipatory and inclusive. Operationalizing these ideals for research on atmospheric methane removal could include a code of conduct for researchers, a register of research activities to promote transparency, and public deliberation on the formation of potential further phases of research. Additionally, creating transparent funding streams and maximiz-
ing publicly funded research can help build credibility and legitimacy and ensure that publicly interested research remains in the public interest.
The nascent stage of atmospheric methane removal research limited this Committee’s ability to consider the full technical potential for atmospheric methane removal technologies and the complete set of physical and social consequences of their development and/or deployment. The research agenda outlined above represents the Committee’s vision for priority foundational and systems research across five areas that should commence, with urgency, within 1 year of this report’s publication. Within 3–5 years, the Committee recommends a phase-two assessment to revisit the need and potential for atmospheric methane removal based on the knowledge gained through research identified in phase one. The need for additional future assessments could be determined as a function of the evolving state of knowledge and social context.