Social-Ecological Consequences of Future Wildfires and Smoke in the West: Proceedings of a Workshop (2024)
Chapter: Front Matter
Proceedings of a Workshop
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This activity was supported by (a contract/contracts) between the National Academy of Sciences and the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation (Grant #11987). Support for the work of the Board on Environmental Change and Society is also provided by a grant from the National Science Foundation (Award Number BCS-2055602). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.
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Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/27972
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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Social-Ecological Consequences of Future Wildfires and Smoke in the West: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/27972.
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WORKSHOP PLANNING COMMITTEE ON THE SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES OF FUTURE WILDFIRE IN THE WEST: A WORKSHOP
JONATHAN H. FINK (Chair), Professor of Geology, Portland State University
ERNESTO ALVARADO-CELESTINO, Research Associate Professor, School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington
HANNAH BRENKERT-SMITH, Research Associate Professor, Institute of Behavioral Science in the Environment and Society Program, University of Colorado
ALEXANDRA PAIGE FISCHER, Associate Professor, School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan
OCEANA PUANANILEI FRANCIS, Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Sea Grant Program, University of Hawai’i at Manoa
FRANK K. LAKE, Research Ecologist, USDA Forest Service
GARY E. MACHLIS, Professor of Environmental Sustainability, Clemson University
ALEXANDRA D. SYPHARD, Senior Research Ecologist, Conservation Biology Institute
TAMARA U. WALL, Research Professor, Desert Research Institute
Staff
JOHN BEN SOILEAU, Study Director
DANIEL TALMAGE, Program Officer
THOMAS THORTON, Board Director (until June 2024)
JOSHUA LANG, Program Coordinator
KARA N. LANEY, Senior Program Officer, Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources
BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND SOCIETY
MICHAEL P. VANDENBERGH (Chair), Vanderbilt University Law School
BILAL M. AYYUB, University of Maryland
EDUARDO S. BRONDIZIO, Indiana University-Bloomington
LISA DILLING, University of Colorado, Boulder
KENNETH GILLINGHAM, Yale University
MARY H. HAYDEN, University of Colorado
LORI HUNTER, University of Colorado, Boulder
STEPHEN H. LINDER, University of Texas
GLEN M. MACDONALD, University of California, Los Angeles
GARY E. MACHLIS, Clemson University
BENJAMIN PRESTON, RAND Corporation
JESSE C. RIBOT, American University
JACKIE QATALINA SCHAEFFER, Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium
MADELINE I. SCHOMBURG, Energy Futures Initiative Foundation
BENJAMIN KENNETH SOVACOOL, Boston University
ADELLE DAWN THOMAS, University of The Bahamas
CATHY L. WHITLOCK,1 Montana State University
THOMAS F. THORNTON, Board Director (until June 2024)
___________________
1 Member, National Academy of Sciences
BOARD ON AGRICULTURE AND NATURAL RESOURCES
JILL J. MCCLUSKEY (Chair), Washington State University, Pullman
AMY W. ANDO, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
ARISTOS ARISTIDOU (NAE), Biomason, Inc., Durham
BRUNO BASSO, Michigan State University, East Lansing
BERNADETTE M. DUNHAM, George Washington University, Washington, D.C.
JESSICA E. HALOFSKY, U.S. Department of Agriculture–Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland
ERMIAS KEBREAB, University of California, Davis
MARTY D. MATLOCK, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville
JOHN P. MCNAMARA, Washington State University, Pullman
NAIMA MOUSTAID-MOUSSA, Texas Tech University, Lubbock
V. ALARIC SAMPLE, George Mason University, Fairfax
ROGER E. WYSE, Spruce Capital Partners, San Francisco
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Reviewers
This Proceedings of a Workshop was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published proceedings as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process.
We thank the following individuals for their review of this proceedings:
Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the content of the proceedings nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this proceedings was overseen by KRISTIE EBI, University of Washington. She was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this proceedings was carried out in accordance with standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the rapporteur and the National Academies.
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Preface
Over the past two decades, wildfires in western North America have greatly increased in frequency, magnitude and severity. Scientists have documented three main causes—a century of suppression and inadequate forest management that has led to overly dense, fuel-rich forests; climate change, turning woodlands and grasslands into hot, dry tinder boxes; and the spread of urbanization, increasing the probability of man-made ignitions. Less well known are the environmental and social implications associated with the acceleration of these trends. Will ecosystems transform to become more fire-prone or more fire-resistant and resilient? How can technology best be incorporated into emergency preparedness plans? Will unaffordability of homeowners’ insurance drive more people to migrate away from fire-prone regions? Will wildfire inspire Eurocentric society to incorporate more Indigenous knowledge and practice?
To address these and related questions and to identify possible policy responses, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine’s (National Academies’) Board on Environmental Change and Society, in partnership with the Royal Society of Canada, and with funding from the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, convened a workshop in June 2024 on “The Social and Ecological Consequences of Future Wildfire in the West.” A planning committee with expertise in social and behavioral sciences, environmental and ecological sciences, forestry, fire management, Indigenous knowledge, social-ecological systems, and community well-being and sustainability, among others, designed a rich agenda of two keynotes and seven panel discussions. Over two days, two dozen wildfire experts and a hybrid audience of over 200 participants explored the history, current state, and anticipated future of wildfire science and policy across the western United States and Canada.
From this wide range of perspectives, several themes emerged. The most over-arching was the acknowledgement that we have entered a new era (“the Pyrocene”) with no historical analog, requiring radically different attitudes about how society can “manage” wildfire and smoke. Panelists argued that we can no longer contend that suppressing the largest fires is feasible, or that we can afford to treat tens of millions of acres of overgrown forests and rangelands. Rather, the emphasis could shift to fire prevention and public protection. Taking cues from Indigenous experience, agencies can learn how to better distinguish between “good fire” and “bad fire” and learn to use the former to prevent the latter and prepare communities in ways to cope with smoke from wildland fire.
Case studies of three major recent fires—in Alberta Province, and in the states of California, and Hawaii—revealed that residents and firefighters were fatally ill prepared, with little advanced knowledge of the scale of risks they faced, how these could be reduced, or how they might evacuate. A panel on “Critical Gaps in the Social-ecological Understanding of Wildfire Consequences” cited that while catastrophic wildfires threaten more
and more communities across the West, it is smoke that is having a greater impact, in terms of both public health and raised public awareness. In the summer of 2023, policymakers in Washington, DC, and Ottawa got their first exposure to the unnerving experience, increasingly widespread in the West, of impenetrably opaque skies and unbreathable air. One of the workshop’s most memorable quotes was, “there is both good fire and bad fire, but there is only bad smoke.”
Several hopeful signs emerged from these discussions. A session on “Stories from Impacted Communities” documented attempts to address and correct the disproportionate effects of wildfire and smoke on disadvantaged communities. A panel on “Fire Technology for Social Resilience” showed how camera systems, drones, artificial intelligence, and computer models are giving firefighters and emergency managers earlier warnings, leading to higher success rates in extinguishing fires near cities and towns, in zones known as the Wildland-Urban Interface, and helping residents to escape. A discussion of “Policy, Funding and Action” outlined how multisector collaborations involving government agencies, NGOs, large tech firms, startups, academics, and tribal experts are speeding up the more widespread adoption of proven solutions.
In a wrap-up session, workshop attendees discussed an unexpected benefit from studying the increased occurrence of major wildfires: we now have much more data about the conditions that cause houses to burn, the health consequences of wildfire smoke, and the psychological effects of lengthening fire seasons. Some of these observations are counterintuitive. For instance, ignition frequency increases with housing density, but only up to a point. The densest communities can sometimes have lower losses, because fires can be spotted and extinguished more rapidly. Similarly, negative health effects increase steeply with increasing concentrations of smoke, but then plateau. Even modest amounts of smoke can have more serious consequences than was previously recognized.
The valuable insights that emerged from this event would not have been possible without the energetic participation of the in-person and online panelists, the hard work and contacts of the planning committee, the organizational skills of the National Academies staff, and the enthusiastic engagement of the attendees. Additionally, the planning committee benefited immensely from the contributions of two liaisons from the Board on Environmental Change and Society at the National Academies: Glen MacDonald, Distinguished Professor of Geography at the University of California, Los Angeles, and Cathy Whitlock, Regents Professor Emerita of Earth Sciences at Montana State University. Their vision and scoping of the project provided the planning committee with a framework from which to develop this workshop, and their participation throughout the process enhanced the design and outcomes of the workshop. Finally, special thanks to representatives of the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation for their funding and for their ongoing commitment to unraveling the complex social, ecological, and economic issues of wildfire and climate change.
Jonathan H. Fink
Planning Committee Chair,
The Social-Ecological Consequences of Future Wildfire in the West: A Workshop
Contents
COMMENTS FROM THE GORDON AND BETTY MOORE FOUNDATION
ORGANIZATION OF THE PROCEEDINGS
2 Fire in the Past, Fire in the Mind, Fire in the Future
REIMAGINING AND REDEFINING OUR RELATIONSHIP WITH FIRE
INSIGHTS ON FIRE HISTORY: CLIMATE, HUMAN IMPACT, AND ADAPTING TO A GROWING FIRE DEFICIT
BRIDGING BORDERS: COLLABORATIVE FIRE MANAGEMENT AND THE ROLE OF INDIGENOUS KNOWLEDGE
REFLECTING ON FIRE: HISTORICAL INSIGHTS AND FUTURE CHALLENGES
DEFINING THE HUMAN-CLIMATE RELATIONSHIP: EMBRACING INTERACTION, SCALE, AND UNCERTAINTY
BRIDGING PERSPECTIVES ON FIRE, CARBON MANAGEMENT, AND ECOSYSTEM SERVICES
3 The Trajectory of Wildfire in the West
UNDERSTANDING AND ADDRESSING THE FIRE CRISIS: CONTEXT FROM HISTORICAL ECOLOGY
RETHINKING FIRE MANAGEMENT: SOCIO-ECOLOGICAL INSIGHTS
APPLYING ENVIRONMENTAL LESSONS TO FIRE MANAGEMENT
POTENTIAL IMPACT OF LAND LEASES ON WILDFIRE MANAGEMENT
PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS AND BIAS IN WILDFIRE MANAGEMENT
SOCIAL SCIENCE CONTRIBUTIONS TO WILDFIRE RESEARCH
COMMUNITY PROGRESS IN FIRE MANAGEMENT DESPITE RESOURCE LIMITATIONS
COMBINING TRADITIONAL AND SCIENTIFIC APPROACHES TO FIRE MANAGEMENT
ADVANCING COMPREHENSIVE WILDFIRE STRATEGIES: THE OREGON EXPERIENCE
THE COMPLEXITY OF FIRE MANAGEMENT: ADAPTATION, MITIGATION, AND COMMUNITY INVOLVEMENT
4 The Range and Scope of Social-Ecological Consequences of Wildfire in the West
URBANISM + FIRE: RESISTANCE, CO-CREATION AND RETREAT IN THE PYROCENE
Effective Land Use Strategies and Future Opportunities
COMMUNITY VULNERABILITY AND RECOVERY FROM WILDFIRES
ADDRESSING RURAL ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE IN THE CONTEXT OF WILDFIRE RISK
CHALLENGES AND HISTORICAL CONTEXTS OF CULTURAL BURNING: INSIGHTS ON MANAGING WILDFIRE RISKS TODAY
REBUILDING WATER SYSTEMS AFTER WILDFIRES: CHALLENGES AND INNOVATIONS
EVACUATION CHALLENGES AND HEALTH RISKS OF OLDER POPULATIONS DURING WILDFIRES
STRENGTHENING THE SOCIAL FABRIC TO INCREASE CLIMATE RESILIENCY: INITIATIVES BEYOND FIRE HAZARDS
SHAPING THE FUTURE OF FIRE SCIENCES: RESEARCH STRATEGIES TO MITIGATE WILDFIRE IMPACTS ON COMMUNITIES
FORT MCMURRAY WILDFIRE, ALBERTA, CANADA
MAUI FIRE DISASTER: PRELIMINARY OBSERVATIONS AND RESEARCH TRAJECTORIES
DISCUSSION: ENGAGING STAKEHOLDERS IN COMMUNITY WILDFIRE MANAGEMENT AND RECOVERY
Challenges and Strategies for Coastal Community Wildfire Evacuations
6 Critical Gaps in the Social-Ecological Understanding of Wildfire Consequences
CRITICAL GAPS IN WILDFIRE SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS (SES) AND THE CONSEQUENCES
Integrated Approaches for Wildfire Risk Reduction
The Economic Costs of Wildfire
Gaps and Uncertainty in Addressing the Costs of Wildfires
The Future Economy with Wildfire
CRITICAL GAPS RELATED TO THE PUBLIC HEALTH IMPACTS OF LANDSCAPE FIRE SMOKE
BALANCING WILDFIRE RISK: ECONOMICS, INSURANCE, AND INFRASTRUCTURE CHALLENGES IN THE WUI
Self-Protection Through Home Hardening and Defensible Space
Wildfire Challenges for Property Insurance Markets
Policy and Insurance Challenges When Addressing Wildfire Risk
Architectural Innovation and Fire Resilience in Building Design
Poverty and Wildfire Smoke: Examining Health Disparities and Climate Resilience
Building Trust Between Fire Departments and Communities: Challenges and Solutions
Addressing Overlooked Risks: Worker Exposure in Wildfire Response and Cleanup
7 Reflections on Wildfire Management
EXPLORING THE INTERSECTION BETWEEN FIRE MANAGEMENT AND RURAL ECONOMIES
EQUITY IN FIRE MANAGEMENT: ADDRESSING UNCONSCIOUS BIAS AND RESOURCE ALLOCATION
SITE, SITUATION, AND SOCIAL VULNERABILITY
Challenge 1: Recognize Diverse Consequences
Challenge 2: Understand Proximal and Distal Impacts
Challenge 3: Know Antecedent Conditions and Local Changes
Challenge 4: Prepare for Recovery
Exploring the Possibility of an All-Peril National Catastrophic Insurance Program
Addressing the Need for Standardized Federal and State Support in Fire-Prone Areas
Addressing the Vulnerabilities of Renters in Disaster Planning and Recovery
Incorporating Health Data into Resilience Indices
NAVIGATING COMPLEXITIES IN DISASTER RECOVERY
Strategies and Challenges to Manage Wildfire Risks
9 Stories from Impacted Communities
Using a Co-productionist Research Framework
Other Disasters and Marginalized Groups
RESILIENCE AND RENEWAL: INSIGHTS FROM THE SKEETCHESTN COMMUNITY IN SECWÉPEMC NATION
REFLECTIONS ON LOSS AND RENEWAL: COMMUNITY STORIES FROM THE CZU LIGHTNING COMPLEX FIRE
Decolonizing Fire Management: Restoring Indigenous Knowledge and Leadership
Preparedness in Forest Communities: Integrating Indigenous Teachings
Bridging Indigenous Knowledge and Resilience: Innovations in Cross-Cultural Collaboration
Perspectives on Fire Resilience and Cultural Sustainability: Insights from Indigenous Communities
10 Fire Technology for Social Resilience
ENHANCING SOCIAL RESILIENCE WITH FIRE AND SMOKE TECHNOLOGY
WILDFIRE MONITORING AND RESPONSE: TRANSFORMATION THROUGH INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGIES
SOCIAL RESILIENCE: CHALLENGES AND INNOVATIONS IN WILDFIRE TECHNOLOGY
Evacuation Planning and Community Safety: Addressing Critical Knowledge Gaps and Research Needs
INNOVATIVE APPROACHES AND TECHNOLOGICAL INTEGRATION IN WILDFIRE MANAGEMENT AND PREPAREDNESS
DISCUSSION: IMPROVING WILDFIRE DECISION-MAKING BY ENHANCING DATA AND TOOLS
The Potential for Using Technology to Navigate Uncertainty in Wildfire Decision-Making
SOCIETAL RESILIENCE VERSUS SOCIAL RESILIENCE
Harnessing Technology for Behavioral Change and Resilience in Wildfire Management
NAVIGATING INTEGRATION AND COLLABORATION IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT TECHNOLOGY
11 Policy, Funding, and Action
STEWARDSHIP AND SOVEREIGNTY: IMPLICATIONS OF CIRCUMPOLAR WILDLAND FIRE
Impacts of Arctic Amplification
Fire Management and Conservation Initiatives in the Arctic
NAVIGATING WILDFIRE POLICY AND LEGAL FRAMEWORKS
Navigating Legal Complexities in Wildfire Risk Management
The Maui Fire: Potentially Transformative Legal Implications for Landowner Liability
ECOLOGICAL MANAGEMENT INSIGHTS FROM NCEAS
PRIORITIZING WILDFIRE POLICY REFORMS
UNIFICATION IN THE ARCTIC COUNCIL
ADAPTING TO A FUTURE WITH INCREASED WILDFIRE AND SMOKE: STRATEGIES AND PERSPECTIVES
STRATEGIC CONCERNS AND NATIONAL SECURITY IMPLICATIONS OF WILDFIRES
LEGAL LIABILITY AND FUEL MANAGEMENT: BALANCING FIRE SUPPRESSION WITH CONSERVATION GOALS
EXPLORING ALTERNATIVES TO GEOENGINEERING FOR BOREAL WILDFIRE EMISSIONS
12 Reflections on Workshop Themes
THE ROLE OF TRANSPARENCY AND ACCOUNTABILITY IN FIRE DATA AND RESPONSE
ADAPTING FIRE MANAGEMENT: LEARNING FROM HISTORICAL AND INDIGENOUS APPROACHES
EMBRACING A “ONE HEALTH” APPROACH IN WILDLAND FIRE MANAGEMENT
UNDERSTANDING THE COMPLEXITY OF WILDFIRE MANAGEMENT IN DIVERSE GEOGRAPHICAL AND ECOLOGICAL CONTEXTS
INTEGRATING VULNERABILITY, SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS, AND INDIGENOUS KNOWLEDGE INTO WILDFIRE MANAGEMENT
INSIGHTS INTO THE CONNECTION BETWEEN WILDFIRE MANAGEMENT AND THE IMPORTANCE OF PRECISION IN LANGUAGE
NUANCES OF FIRE MANAGEMENT TERMINOLOGY
WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT IN WILDLAND FIRE RESPONSE AND FOREST MANAGEMENT
DEVELOPING A RESILIENT RURAL FIRE WORKFORCE
EMBRACING PLACE-BASED RESEARCH
ENHANCING RESILIENCE THROUGH INCREASED RESEARCH AND A ONE HEALTH APPROACH
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Box and Figures
BOX
FIGURES
4-1 The intersection of urban areas and wildfire perimeters in California
5-2 Overhead perspective of the Hill Fire and Woolsey Fire at 1:30 a.m. on November 10, 2018
8-1 Relationship between social vulnerability and wildfire likelihood in U.S. counties
8-2 Baseline resilience indicators for communities and wildfire likelihood
9-1 Wildfire evacuations from 1980 to 2021 in Canada
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