References

Aiyagari, S. R. 1994. Uninsured idiosyncratic risk and aggregate saving. Quarterly Journal of Economics 109(3):659–684.

Anthoff, D., F. Estrada, and R. S. J. Tol. 2016. Shutting down the thermohaline circulation. American Economic Review 106(5):602–606.

Armstrong McKay, D. I., A. Staal, J. F. Abrams, R. Winkelmann, B. Sakschewski, S. Loriani, I. Fetzer, S. E. Cornell, J. Rockström, and T. M. Lenton. 2022. Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points. Science 377(6611):eabn7950.

Arthi, V. 2018. “The dust was long in settling”: Human capital and the lasting impact of the American Dust Bowl. Journal of Economic History 78(1):196–230.

Arthi, V., B. Beach, and W. Walker Hanlon. 2022. Recessions, mortality, and migration bias: Evidence from the Lancashire cotton famine. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 14(2):228–255.

Arthi, V., G. Richardson, and M. Van Orden. 2023. Early-career trajectories during the Great Depression: Evidence from large-scale longitudinal microdata. Working Paper.

Bakkensen, L., and L. Barrage. 2018. Climate shocks, cyclones, and economic growth: Bridging the micro-macro gap. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series No. w24893.

Ball, L. 2014. Long-term damage from the Great Recession in OECD countries. European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies 11(2):149–160.

Blonz, J. A. 2023. The costs of misaligned incentives: Energy inefficiency and the principal-agent problem. American Economic Journal 15(3):286–321.

Boer, L., A. Pescatori, and M. Stuermer. 2021. Energy transition metals. IMF Working Paper No. 2021/243.

Buhaug, H., and N. von Uexkull. 2021. Vicious circles: Violence, vulnerability, and climate change. Annual Review of Environment and Resources 46:545–568.

Cai, Y., and T. S. Lontzek. 2019. The social cost of carbon with economic and climate risks. Journal of Political Economy 127(6):2684–2734.

Davis, L. W., and C. Hausman. 2022. Who will pay for legacy utility costs? Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists 9(6):10471085.

Davis, L. W., C. Hausman, and N. L. Rose. 2023. Transmission impossible? Prospects for decarbonizing the U.S. grid. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 31377.

Diaz, D., and F. Moore. 2017. Valuing potential climate impacts: A review of current limitations and the research frontier. Report No. 3002011885. Palo Alto, CA: EPRI.

Dietz, S., J. Rising, T. Stoerk, and G. Wagner. 2021. Economic impacts of tipping points in the climate system. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118(34):e2103081118.

Donnelly, D., M. Fricaudet, and N. Ameli. 2023. Accelerating institutional funding of low-carbon investment: The potential for an investment emissions intensity tax. Ecological Economics 207:107755.

Dorsey, J., and D. Wolfson. 2024. Unequal uptake: Assessing distributional disparities in the residential solar market. Working Paper.

Espagne, E., and G. Magacho. 2022. Ecological planning and structural change: Perspectives for France. Revue de l’OFCE 176(1):175–201.

Espagne, E., W. Oman, J. F. Mercure, R. Svartzman, U. Volz, H. Pollitt, G. Semieniuk, and E. Campiglio. 2023. Cross-border risks of a global economy in mid-transition. IMF Working Paper No. 2023/184, International Monetary Fund.

Fan, Q., K. Fisher-Vanden, and H. A. Klaiber. 2018. Climate change, migration, and regional economic impacts in the United States. Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists 5(3):643–671.

Fried, S. 2022. Seawalls and stilts: A quantitative macro study of climate adaptation. Review of Economic Studies 89(6):3303–3344.

Grubert, E., and S. Hastings-Simon. 2022. Designing the mid-transition: A review of medium-term challenges for coordinated decarbonization in the United States. WIREs Climate Change 13(3):e768.

Haines, A., and K. Ebi. 2019. The imperative for climate action to protect health. New England Journal of Medicine 380(3):263–273.

Hausman, C., and D. Raimi. 2019. Plugging the leaks: Why existing financial incentives aren’t enough to reduce methane. Policy Brief. Kleinman Center for Energy Policy.

Huggett, M. 1993. The risk-free rate in heterogeneous-agent and incomplete-insurance economies. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 17:953–969.

Imrohoruglu, A. 1989. Cost of business cycles with indivisibilities and liquidity constraints. Journal of Political Economy 97:1364–1383.

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2021. Summary for policymakers. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S. L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M. I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J. B. R. Matthews, T. K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou. Cambridge, UK and New York: Cambridge University Press. Pp. 3−32. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.001.

IPCC. 2022. Global Warming of 1.5°C: IPCC Special Report on Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5°C Above Pre-industrial Levels in Context of Strengthening Response to Climate Change, Sustainable Development, and Efforts to Eradicate Poverty. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

IPCC. 2023. Climate change 2023: Synthesis report. In Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by J. Romero. Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC. https://doi.org/10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647.

Kong, Q., and M. Huber. 2022. Explicit calculations of wet-bulb globe temperature compared with approximations and why it matters for labor productivity. Earth’s Future 10(3):e2021EF002334.

Lapeyronie, H., and E. Espagne. 2023. Energy transition minerals and the SDGs: A systematic review. AFD Research Paper No. 268. Agence Française de Development

Lemoine, D. 2021. The climate risk premium: How uncertainty affects the social cost of carbon. Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists 8(1):27–57.

Lemoine, D., and C. P. Traeger. 2016. Economics of tipping the climate dominoes. Nature Climate Change 6:514-519.

Lenton, T. M., C. Xu, J. F. Abrams, A. Ghadiali, S. Loriani, B. Sakschewski, C. Zimm, K. L. Ebi, R. R. Dunn, J.-C. Svenning, and M. Scheffer. 2023. Quantifying the human cost of global warming. Nature Sustainability 6(10):1237–1247.

McLeman, R., D. Wrathall, E. Gilmore, P. Thornton, H. Adams, and F. Gemenne. 2021. Conceptual framing to link climate risk assessments and climate-migration scholarship. Climatic Change 165(1):24.

Mercure, J.-F., S. Sharpe, J. E. Vinuales, M. Ives, M. Grubb, A. Lam, P. Drummond, H. Politt, F. Knobloch, and F. J. M. M. Nijsse. 2021. Risk-opportunity analysis for transformative policy design and appraisal. Global Environmental Change 70:102359.

Miller, H., S. Dikau, R. Svartzman, and S. Dees. 2023. The stumbling block in “the race of our lives”: Transition-critical materials, financial risks and the NGFS Climate Scenarios. Banque de France Working Paper No. 907.

Monasterolo, I., A. Mandel, S. Battiston, A. Mazzocchetti, K. Oppermann, J. Coony, S. Stretton, F. Stewart, and N. Dunz. 2022. The role of green financial sector initiatives in the low-carbon transition: A theory of change. Policy Research Working Paper 10181. World Bank Group, Climate Change Group, and the Finance, Competitiveness and Innovation Global Practice.

NASEM (National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine). 2024. Incorporating climate change and climate policy into macroeconomic modeling: Proceedings of a workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

Nijsse, F. J. M. M., J.-F. Mercure, N. Ameli, F. Larosa, S. Kothari, J. Rickman, P. Vercoulen, and H. Pollitt. 2022. Is a solar future inevitable? Working Paper Series No. 2022/02. University of Exeter, Global Systems Institute.

OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development). 2021. Managing climate risks, facing up to losses and damages. Paris: OECD Publishing.

Parry, I. W. H., S. Black, and N. Vernon. 2021. Still not getting energy prices right: A global and country update of fossil fuel subsidies. IMF Working Paper No. 2021/236, International Monetary Fund.

Ritchie, P. D. L., G. S. Smith, K. J. Davis, C. Fezzi, S. Halleck-Vega, A. B. Harper, C. A. Boulton, A. R. Binner, B. H. Day, A. V. Gallego-Sala, J. V. Mecking, S. A. Sitch, T. M Lenton, and I. J. Bateman. 2020. Shifts in national land use and food production in Great Britain after a climate tipping point. Nature Food 1(1):76–83.

Roson, R., and M. Sartori. 2016. Estimation of climate change damage functions for 140 regions in the GTAP9 database. Policy Research Working Paper 7728. World Bank Group. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/52800c14-f0cb-5a4f-ae1e-8dd5062be63c/content.

Saeed, W., I. Haqiqi, Q. Kong, M. Huber, J. R. Buzan, S. Chonabayashi, K. Motohashi, and T. W. Hertel. 2022. The poverty impacts of labor heat stress in West Africa under a warming climate. Earth’s Future 10(11):e2022EF002777.

Semenza, J. C., J. Rocklöv, and K. L. Ebi. 2022. Climate change and cascading risks from infectious disease. Infectious Diseases and Therapeutics 11(4):1371–1390.

Simpson, N. P., K. J. Mach, A. Constable, J. Hess, R. Hogarth, M. Howden, J. Lawrence, R. J. Lempert, V. Muccione, B. Mackey, M. G. New, B. O’Neill, F. Otto, H.-O. Pörtner, A. Reisinger, D. Roberts, D. N. Schmidt, S. Seneviratne, S. Strongin, M. van Aalst, E. Totin, C. H. Trisos. 2021. A framework for complex climate change risk assessment. One Earth 4(4):489–501.

Strumsky, D., J. Lobo, and J. A. Tainter. 2010. Complexity and the productivity of innovation. Systems Research 27:496–509.

van den Bremer, T. S., and F. van der Ploeg. 2021. The risk-adjusted carbon price. American Economic Review 111(9):2782–2810.

Vecellio, D. J., Q. Kong, W. L. Kenney, and M. Huber. 2023. Greatly enhanced risk to humans as a consequence of empirically determined lower moist heat stress tolerance. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 120(42):e2305427120.

Way, R., M. C. Ives, P. Mealy, and J. D. Farmer. 2022. Empirically grounded technology forecasts and the energy transition. Joule 6(9):2057–2082.

Webster, M., K. Fisher-Vanden, V. Kumar, R. B. Lammers, and J. Perla. 2022. Integrated hydrological, power system and economic modelling of climate impacts on electricity demand and cost. Nature Energy 7(2):163–169.

Weitzman, M. L. 2011. Fat-tailed uncertainty in the economics of catastrophic climate change. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy 5(2):275–292.

WRI (World Resources Institute). 2018. Half a degree and a world apart: The difference in climate impacts between 1.5 and 2° C of warming. https://www.wri.org/insights/half-degree-and-world-apart-difference-climate-impacts-between-15c-and-2c-warming.

Wunderling, N., R. Winkelmann, J. Rockström, S. Loriani, D. I. Armstrong McKay, P. D. L. Ritchie, B. Sakschewski, and J. F. Donges. 2023. Global warming overshoots increase risks of climate tipping cascades in a network model. Nature Climate Change 13(1):75–82.