Modeling the Health Risks of Climate Change: Workshop Summary (2015)
Chapter: Front Matter
MODELING THE HEALTH RISKS
OF CLIMATE CHANGE
WORKSHOP SUMMARY
Kellyn Betts and Keegan Sawyer, Rapporteurs
Standing Committee on Emerging Science for Environmental Health Decisions
Board on Life Sciences
Division on Earth and Life Studies
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street NW Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This workshop was supported by Contract HHSN26300049 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Institutes of Health.
Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-37098-1
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-37098-1
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Copyright 2015 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America.
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr. are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
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PLANNING COMMITTEE FOR THE WORKSHOP MODELING THE HEALTH RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE*
William H. Farland† (Chair), Colorado State University (retired)
John M. Balbus, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences
Ann Bostrom, † University of Washington
Kristie Lee Ebi, ESS, LCC
Gerald Geernaert, US Department of Energy
Anne Grambsch, Environmental Protection Agency
Robert Vallario, US Department of Energy
Linda S. Wennerberg, National Aeronautics and Space Agency
Helmut Zarbl,† Robert Wood Johnson Medical School
___________________
*The members of the workshop planning committee were not involved in the writing of the workshop summary.
†Members of the Standing Committee on Emerging Science for Environmental Health Decisions.
STANDING COMMITTEE ON EMERGING SCIENCE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH DECISIONS
William H. Farland (Chair), Colorado State University (retired)
Ann Bostrom, University of Washington
George P. Daston, Procter & Gamble Company
Richard A. Denison, Environmental Defense Fund
Shuk-mei Ho, University of Cincinnati
Ana Navas-Acien, Johns Hopkins University
Carolyn Mattingly, North Carolina State University
Ivan Rusyn, Texas A&M University
Joyce S. Tsuji, Exponent, Inc.
Cheryl Walker, Texas A&M Health Science Center
Helmut Zarbl, Robert Wood Johnson Medical School
Lauren A. Zeise, California Environmental Protection Agency
National Research Council Staff:
Marilee Shelton-Davenport, Project Director
Keegan Sawyer, Program Officer
Lauren Soni, Senior Program Assistant
Kellyn Betts, Consulting Science Writer
Normal Grossblatt, Senior Editor
BOARD ON LIFE SCIENCES
James P. Collins (Chair), Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona
Enriqueta C. Bond, Burroughs Wellcome Fund (retired)
Roger D. Cone, Vanderbilt University Medical Center
Joseph R. Ecker, Salk Institute for Biological Studies
Sean Eddy, HHMI Janelia Farm Research Campus
Sarah C. R. Elgin, Washington University
David R. Franz, Former Cdr USAMRIID; Consultant
Stephen Friend, Sage Bionetworks
Elizabeth Heitman, Vanderbilt University Medical Center
John G. Hildebrand, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona
Richard A. Johnson, Arnold & Porter, LLC
Judith Kimble, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Wisconsin
Mary E. Maxon, Science Philanthropy Alliance
Karen E. Nelson, J. Craig Venter Institute
Robert M. Nerem, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia
Mary E. Power, University of California, Berkeley, California
Margaret Riley, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts
Lana Skirboll, Sanofi, Baltimore
Janis C. Weeks, University of Oregon
Mary Woolley, Research!America
National Research Council Staff:
Frances E. Sharples, Director
Jo L. Husbands, Scholar/Senior Project Director
Jay B. Labov, Senior Scientist/Program Director for Biology Education
Katherine W. Bowman, Senior Program Officer
Marilee K. Shelton-Davenport, Senior Program Officer
Keegan Sawyer, Program Officer
Audrey Thevenon, Associate Program Officer
Bethelhem Mekasha, Financial Associate
Angela Kolesnikova, Administrative Assistant
Jenna Ogilvie, Senior Project Assistant
Lauren Soni, Senior Project Assistant
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ACKNOWLEDGMENT OF REVIEWERS
This workshop summary has been reviewed in draft form by persons chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purposes of this review are to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making the published summary as sound as possible and to ensure that the summary meets institutional standards of objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following for their participation in the review of this summary:
Peter Berry, Health Canada
William Farland, Colorado State University (retired)
Kim Knowlton, Natural Resources Defense Council
Benjamin Zaitchik, Johns Hopkins University
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse, nor did they see, the final draft of the workshop summary before its release. The review of the report was overseen by Patrick Kinney of Columbia University. Appointed by the National Academies, Dr. Kinney was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of the summary was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of the summary rests entirely with the authors and the National Research Council.
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CONTENTS
2. HEALTH RISKS POSED BY CLIMATE CHANGE: WHAT WE KNOW AND WHY WE MODEL
Climate Change and Health: What do we Know?
Why Model the Health Risks Posed by Climate Change?
3 MODELING HEALTH RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE: STATUS, HURDLES, AND OPPORTUNITIES
Definitions, Mechanics, and Key Considerations
Modeling: The State of the Science
4 APPLYING SYSTEMS THINKING TO UNDERSTAND FUTURE VULNERABILITIES
Systems Thinking: Definitions and Importance
Incorporating Systems Thinking into Models
