Workshop_in_brief
Strategically moving communities and infrastructure - including homes and businesses - away from environmentally high-risk areas, such as vulnerable coastal regions, has been referred to as managed retreat. Of all the ways humans respond to climate-related hazards, managed retreat has been one of the most controversial due to the difficulty inherent in identifying when, to where, by whom, and the processes by which such movement should take place.
To understand and respond to the unique challenges associated with managed retreat, the Gulf Research Program of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine sponsored a committee of experts to provide in-depth analysis and identify short- and long-term next steps for Gulf Coast communities that may need to relocate. The committee convened a series of three public workshops in the Gulf Coast region to gather information about on policy and practice considerations, research and data needs, and community engagement strategies. The workshops focused on elevating the voices of communities and individuals contemplating, resisting, undertaking, or facing barriers to relocation (including systemic issues such as structural racism), as well as individuals who have resettled and communities that have received such individuals. Each workshop included community testimonials and panels of local decision makers and experts discussing study-relevant processes and obstacles faced by communities. The first workshop was held in two parts in Houston and Port Arthur, Texas; the second workshop was held in St. Petersburg, Florida; and the third workshop was held in two parts in Thibodaux and Houma, Louisiana. This Proceedings of a Workshop-in Brief recounts the second workshop, held in July 2022 in St. Petersburg, Florida.
11 pages
·
8.5 x 11
·
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-69447-7
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/26736
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Relocation and Other Climate Adaptations on Florida's Gulf Coast: Proceedings of a Workshop—in Brief. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
Import this citation to:
Consensus
More intense heat waves, extended wildfire seasons and other escalating impacts of climate change have made it more important than ever to fill knowledge gaps that improve society's understanding, assessment, and response to global change. The US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) - a collection of 13 Federal entities charged by law to help the United States and the world fill those knowledge gaps - laid out proposed mechanisms and priorities for global change research over the next decade in its draft Decadal Strategic Plan 2022-2031. The draft plan recognizes that priority knowledge gaps have shifted over the past decade as demand has grown for more useful and more inclusive data to inform decision-making, and as the focus on resilience and sustainability has increased.
As part of its work in advising the USGCRP since 2011, the National Academies reviewed USGCRP's draft plan to determine how it might be enhanced. Advances in the draft plan include an increased emphasis on social sciences, community engagement with marginalized groups, and promotion of diversity, equity, inclusion, and justice in the production of science. Strengthening the interconnections between the plan's core pillars and expanding opportunities for coordination among federal agencies tasked with responding to global climate change would improve the plan. The draft plan could more strongly convey a sense of urgency throughout the plan and would benefit from additional examples of key research outputs that could advance policy and decision making on global change challenges.
76 pages
·
8.5 x 11
·
paperback
ISBN Paperback: 0-309-68994-5
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-68995-3
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/26608
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Draft Decadal Strategic Plan, 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
Import this citation to:
Consensus
The border region shared by the United States and Mexico is currently experiencing multiple crises on both sides that present challenges to safeguarding the region's sustainable natural resources and to ensuring the livelihoods of its residents. These challenges are exacerbated by stressors including global climate change, increasing urbanization and industrialization and attendant air and water-quality degradation, and rapid population growth. Navigating these challenges and preserving the area's cultural richness, economy, and ecology will require building strategic partnerships that engage a broad range of stakeholders from both countries.
To navigate these challenges, the U.S. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, together with the Mexican Academy of Sciences (Academia Mexicana de Ciencias), Mexican Academy of Engineering (Academia de Ingeniería de México), and Mexican National Academy of Medicine (Academia Nacional de Medicina de México), appointed a committee of experts from the United States and Mexico to conduct a consensus study.
Advancing United States-Mexico Binational Sustainability Partnerships incorporates features of the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, in particular, Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 17. SDG 17 calls for revitalizing global partnerships for sustainable development. It is specifically focused on the advancement of multi-stakeholder partnerships that require coordination and collaboration among diverse stakeholders in pursuit of a common and mutually beneficial vision. With attention to SDG 17, this report draws on social science theory and applied research on partnerships to explore potential strategies and mechanisms to increase coordination between relevant government agencies, the private sector, and civil society in the United States and Mexico.
148 pages
·
6 x 9
·
paperback
ISBN Paperback: 0-309-29087-2
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-29088-0
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/26070
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Advancing United States-Mexico Binational Sustainability Partnerships. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
Import this citation to:
Consensus
158 pages
·
6 x 9
·
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-27458-3
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/26419
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Avances de las alianzas binacionales para la sostenibilidad entre Estados Unidos y México. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
Import this citation to:
Consensus
The US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is a collection of 13 Federal entities charged by law to assist the United States and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change. Global Change Research Needs and Opportunities for 2022-2031 advises the USGCRP on how best to meet its mandate in light of climate change impacts happening today and projected into the future. This report identifies critical climate change risks, research needed to support decision-making relevant to managing these risks, and opportunities for the USGCRP's participating agencies and other partners to advance these research priorities over the next decade.
122 pages
·
7 x 10
·
paperback
ISBN Paperback: 0-309-26134-1
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-26190-2
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/26055
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Global Change Research Needs and Opportunities for 2022-2031. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
Import this citation to:
Consensus
The world is transforming its energy system from one dominated by fossil fuel combustion to one with net-zero emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), the primary anthropogenic greenhouse gas. This energy transition is critical to mitigating climate change, protecting human health, and revitalizing the U.S. economy. To help policymakers, businesses, communities, and the public better understand what a net-zero transition would mean for the United States, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine convened a committee of experts to investigate how the U.S. could best decarbonize its transportation, electricity, buildings, and industrial sectors.
This report, Accelerating Decarbonization of the United States Energy System, identifies key technological and socio-economic goals that must be achieved to put the United States on the path to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. The report presents a policy blueprint outlining critical near-term actions for the first decade (2021-2030) of this 30-year effort, including ways to support communities that will be most impacted by the transition.
268 pages
·
7 x 10
·
paperback
ISBN Paperback: 0-309-68292-4
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-68293-2
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/25932
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
Import this citation to:
Consensus
Approximately 30 percent of the edible food produced in the United States is wasted and a significant portion of this waste occurs at the consumer level. Despite food's essential role as a source of nutrients and energy and its emotional and cultural importance, U.S. consumers waste an estimated average of 1 pound of food per person per day at home and in places where they buy and consume food away from home. Many factors contribute to this waste—consumers behaviors are shaped not only by individual and interpersonal factors but also by influences within the food system, such as policies, food marketing and the media. Some food waste is unavoidable, and there is substantial variation in how food waste and its impacts are defined and measured. But there is no doubt that the consequences of food waste are severe: the wasting of food is costly to consumers, depletes natural resources, and degrades the environment. In addition, at a time when the COVID-19 pandemic has severely strained the U.S. economy and sharply increased food insecurity, it is predicted that food waste will worsen in the short term because of both supply chain disruptions and the closures of food businesses that affect the way people eat and the types of food they can afford.
A National Strategy to Reduce Food Waste at the Consumer Level identifies strategies for changing consumer behavior, considering interactions and feedbacks within the food system. It explores the reasons food is wasted in the United States, including the characteristics of the complex systems through which food is produced, marketed, and sold, as well as the many other interconnected influences on consumers' conscious and unconscious choices about purchasing, preparing, consuming, storing, and discarding food. This report presents a strategy for addressing the challenge of reducing food waste at the consumer level from a holistic, systems perspective.
322 pages
·
6 x 9
·
paperback
ISBN Paperback: 0-309-68073-5
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-68074-3
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/25876
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. A National Strategy to Reduce Food Waste at the Consumer Level. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
Import this citation to:
Consensus
For nearly a century, scientific advances have fueled progress in U.S. agriculture to enable American producers to deliver safe and abundant food domestically and provide a trade surplus in bulk and high-value agricultural commodities and foods. Today, the U.S. food and agricultural enterprise faces formidable challenges that will test its long-term sustainability, competitiveness, and resilience. On its current path, future productivity in the U.S. agricultural system is likely to come with trade-offs. The success of agriculture is tied to natural systems, and these systems are showing signs of stress, even more so with the change in climate.
More than a third of the food produced is unconsumed, an unacceptable loss of food and nutrients at a time of heightened global food demand. Increased food animal production to meet greater demand will generate more greenhouse gas emissions and excess animal waste. The U.S. food supply is generally secure, but is not immune to the costly and deadly shocks of continuing outbreaks of food-borne illness or to the constant threat of pests and pathogens to crops, livestock, and poultry. U.S. farmers and producers are at the front lines and will need more tools to manage the pressures they face.
Science Breakthroughs to Advance Food and Agricultural Research by 2030 identifies innovative, emerging scientific advances for making the U.S. food and agricultural system more efficient, resilient, and sustainable. This report explores the availability of relatively new scientific developments across all disciplines that could accelerate progress toward these goals. It identifies the most promising scientific breakthroughs that could have the greatest positive impact on food and agriculture, and that are possible to achieve in the next decade (by 2030).
242 pages
·
6 x 9
·
paperback
ISBN Paperback: 0-309-47392-6
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-47393-4
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/25059
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Science Breakthroughs to Advance Food and Agricultural Research by 2030. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
Import this citation to:
The drylands region shared by the United States and Mexico currently faces multiple sustainability challenges at the intersection of the human and natural systems. Warming and drying conditions threaten surface water and groundwater availability, disrupt land- and marine-based livelihood systems, and challenge the sustainability of human settlements. These biophysical challenges are exacerbated by a highly mobile and dynamic population, volatile economic and policy conditions, increased exposure to extreme events, and urbanization on marginal, vulnerable lands.
The U.S. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine collaborated with the Mexican Academy of Sciences, Academy of Engineering, and the National Academy of Medicine to plan a 2-day binational workshop, Advancing Sustainability of U.S.-Mexico Transboundary Drylands. The workshop goals were to highlight the challenges facing the region, assess the scientific and technical capacity that each nation can bring to bear in addressing these challenges, and identify new opportunities for binational research collaboration and coordinated management approaches in the advancement of sustainability science and development. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussions from the workshop.
80 pages
·
6 x 9
·
paperback
ISBN Paperback: 0-309-48424-3
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-48425-1
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/25253
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Advancing Sustainability of U.S.-Mexico Transboundary Drylands: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
Import this citation to:
Consensus
The U.S. Gulf Coast provides a valuable setting to study deeply connected natural and human interactions and feedbacks that have led to a complex, interconnected coastal system. The physical landscape in the region has changed significantly due to broad-scale, long-term processes such as coastal subsidence and river sediment deposition as well as short-term episodic events such as hurricanes. Modifications from human activities, including building levees and canals and constructing buildings and roads, have left their own imprint on the natural landscape. This coupled natural-human coastal system and the individual aspects within it (physical, ecological, and human) are under increased pressure from accelerating environmental stressors such as sea level rise, intensifying hurricanes, and continued population increase with its accompanying coastal development. Promoting the resilience and maintaining the habitability of the Gulf Coast into the future will need improved understanding of the coupled natural-human coastal system, as well as effective sharing of this understanding in support of decision-making and policies.
Understanding the Long-term Evolution of the Coupled Natural-Human Coastal System presents a research agenda meant to enable a better understanding of the multiple and interconnected factors that influence long-term processes along the Gulf Coast. This report identifies scientific and technical gaps in understanding the interactions and feedbacks between human and natural processes, defines essential components of a research and development program in response to the identified gaps, and develops priorities for critical areas of research.
156 pages
·
7 x 10
·
paperback
ISBN Paperback: 0-309-47584-8
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-47585-6
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/25108
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Understanding the Long-Term Evolution of the Coupled Natural-Human Coastal System: The Future of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
Import this citation to:
Consensus
Climate change poses many challenges that affect society and the natural world. With these challenges, however, come opportunities to respond. By taking steps to adapt to and mitigate climate change, the risks to society and the impacts of continued climate change can be lessened. The National Climate Assessment, coordinated by the U.S. Global Change Research Program, is a mandated report intended to inform response decisions. Required to be developed every four years, these reports provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date evaluation of climate change impacts available for the United States, making them a unique and important climate change document.
The draft Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) report reviewed here addresses a wide range of topics of high importance to the United States and society more broadly, extending from human health and community well-being, to the built environment, to businesses and economies, to ecosystems and natural resources. This report evaluates the draft NCA4 to determine if it meets the requirements of the federal mandate, whether it provides accurate information grounded in the scientific literature, and whether it effectively communicates climate science, impacts, and responses for general audiences including the public, decision makers, and other stakeholders.
206 pages
·
8.5 x 11
·
paperback
ISBN Paperback: 0-309-47169-9
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-47170-2
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/25013
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Review of the Draft Fourth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
Import this citation to:
Consensus
The 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens in southwest Washington State radically changed the physical and socio-economic landscapes of the region. The eruption destroyed the summit of the volcano, sending large amounts of debris into the North Fork Toutle River, and blocking the sole means of drainage from Spirit Lake 4 miles north of Mount St. Helens. As a result of the blockage, rising lake levels could cause failure of the debris blockage, putting the downstream population of approximately 50,000 at risk of catastrophic flooding and mud flows. Further, continued transport of sediment to the river from volcanic debris deposits surrounding the mountain reduces the flood carrying capacity of downstream river channels and leaves the population vulnerable to chronic flooding.
The legacy of the 1980 eruption and the prospect of future volcanic, seismic, and flood events mean that risk management in the Spirit Lake Toutle River system will be challenging for decades to come. This report offers a decision framework to support the long-term management of risks related to the Spirit Lake and Toutle River system in light of the different regional economic, cultural, and social priorities, and the respective roles of federal, tribal, state, and local authorities, as well as other entities and groups in the region. It also considers the history and adequacy of characterization, monitoring, and management associated with the Spirit Lake debris blockage and outflow tunnel, other efforts to control transport of water and sediment from the 1980 and later eruptions, and suggests additional information needed to support implementation of the recommended decision framework.
336 pages
·
6 x 9
·
paperback
ISBN Paperback: 0-309-46444-7
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-46445-5
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/24874
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. A Decision Framework for Managing the Spirit Lake and Toutle River System at Mount St. Helens. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
Import this citation to:
Consensus
Our ability to observe and forecast severe weather events has improved markedly over the past few decades. Forecasts of snow and ice storms, hurricanes and storm surge, extreme heat, and other severe weather events are made with greater accuracy, geographic specificity, and lead time to allow people and communities to take appropriate protective measures. Yet hazardous weather continues to cause loss of life and result in other preventable social costs.
There is growing recognition that a host of social and behavioral factors affect how we prepare for, observe, predict, respond to, and are impacted by weather hazards. For example, an individual's response to a severe weather event may depend on their understanding of the forecast, prior experience with severe weather, concerns about their other family members or property, their capacity to take the recommended protective actions, and numerous other factors. Indeed, it is these factors that can determine whether or not a potential hazard becomes an actual disaster. Thus, it is essential to bring to bear expertise in the social and behavioral sciences (SBS)—including disciplines such as anthropology, communication, demography, economics, geography, political science, psychology, and sociology—to understand how people's knowledge, experiences, perceptions, and attitudes shape their responses to weather risks and to understand how human cognitive and social dynamics affect the forecast process itself.
Integrating Social and Behavioral Sciences Within the Weather Enterprise explores and provides guidance on the challenges of integrating social and behavioral sciences within the weather enterprise. It assesses current SBS activities, describes the potential value of improved integration of SBS and barriers that impede this integration, develops a research agenda, and identifies infrastructural and institutional arrangements for successfully pursuing SBS-weather research and the transfer of relevant findings to operational settings.
198 pages
·
7 x 10
·
paperback
ISBN Paperback: 0-309-46422-6
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-46423-4
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/24865
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Integrating Social and Behavioral Sciences Within the Weather Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
Import this citation to:
Consensus
The social cost of carbon (SC-CO2) is an economic metric intended to provide a comprehensive estimate of the net damages - that is, the monetized value of the net impacts, both negative and positive - from the global climate change that results from a small (1-metric ton) increase in carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions. Under Executive Orders regarding regulatory impact analysis and as required by a court ruling, the U.S. government has since 2008 used estimates of the SC-CO2 in federal rulemakings to value the costs and benefits associated with changes in CO2 emissions. In 2010, the Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases (IWG) developed a methodology for estimating the SC-CO2 across a range of assumptions about future socioeconomic and physical earth systems.
Valuing Climate Changes examines potential approaches, along with their relative merits and challenges, for a comprehensive update to the current methodology. This publication also recommends near- and longer-term research priorities to ensure that the SC- CO2 estimates reflect the best available science.
280 pages
·
6 x 9
·
paperback
ISBN Paperback: 0-309-45420-4
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-45421-2
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/24651
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Valuing Climate Damages: Updating Estimation of the Social Cost of Carbon Dioxide. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
Import this citation to:
Consensus
The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is an interagency program, established by the Global Change Research Act (GCRA) of 1990, mandated by Congress to "assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change". Since the USGCRP began, scientific understanding of global change has increased and the information needs of the nation have changed dramatically.
A better understanding of what is changing and why can help decision makers in the public and private sectors cope with ongoing change. Accomplishments of the U.S. Global Change Research Program highlights the growth of global change science in the quarter century that the USGCRP has been in existence, and documents some of its contributions to that growth through its primary functions of interagency planning and coordination, and of synthesis of research and practice to inform decision making.
90 pages
·
8.5 x 11
·
paperback
ISBN Paperback: 0-309-45501-4
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-45502-2
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/24670
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Accomplishments of the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
Import this citation to:
Workshop
The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) was established in 1990 to "assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change."1 A key responsibility for the program is to conduct National Climate Assessments (NCAs) every 4 years.2 These assessments are intended to inform the nation about "observed changes in climate, the current status of the climate, and anticipated trends for the future." The USGCRP hopes that government entities from federal agencies to small municipalities, citizens, communities, and businesses will rely on these assessments of climate- related risks for planning and decision-making. The third NCA (NCA3) was published in 2014 and work on the fourth is beginning.
The USGCRP asked the Board on Environmental Change and Society of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to conduct a workshop to explore ways to frame the NCA4 and subsequent NCA reports in terms of risks to society. The workshop was intended to collect experienced views on how to characterize and communicate information about climate-related hazards, risks, and opportunities that will support decision makers in their efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, reduce vulnerability to likely changes in climate, and increase resilience to those changes. Characterizing Risk in Climate Change Assessments summarizes the presentations and discussions from the workshop.
100 pages
·
6 x 9
·
paperback
ISBN Paperback: 0-309-44551-5
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-44552-3
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/23569
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Characterizing Risk in Climate Change Assessments: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
Import this citation to:
Consensus
The Update to the Strategic Plan (USP) is a supplement to the Ten-Year Strategic Plan of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) completed in 2012. The Strategic Plan sets out a research program guiding thirteen federal agencies in accord with the Global Change Research Act of 1990. This report reviews whether USGCRP's efforts to achieve its goals and objectives, as documented in the USP, are adequate and responsive to the Nation's needs, whether the priorities for continued or increased emphasis are appropriate, and if the written document communicates effectively, all within a context of the history and trajectory of the Program.
92 pages
·
8.5 x 11
·
paperback
ISBN Paperback: 0-309-43746-6
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-43747-4
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/23396
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Update to the Strategic Plan Document. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
Import this citation to:
Consensus
The social cost of carbon (SCC) for a given year is an estimate, in dollars, of the present discounted value of the damage caused by a 1-metric ton increase in CO2 emissions into the atmosphere in that year; or equivalently, the benefits of reducing CO2 emissions by the same amount in that given year. The SCC is intended to provide a comprehensive measure of the monetized value of the net damages from global climate change from an additional unit of CO2, including, but not limited to, changes in net agricultural productivity, energy use, human health effects, and property damages from increased flood risk. Federal agencies use the SCC to value the CO2 emissions impacts of various policies including emission and fuel economy standards for vehicles, regulations of industrial air pollutants from industrial manufacturing, emission standards for power plants and solid waste incineration, and appliance energy efficiency standards.
There are significant challenges to estimating a dollar value that reflects all the physical, human, ecological, and economic impacts of climate change. Recognizing that the models and scientific data underlying the SCC estimates evolve and improve over time, the federal government made a commitment to provide regular updates to the estimates. To assist with future revisions of the SCC, the Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost of Carbon (IWG) requested the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine complete a study that assessed the merits and challenges of a limited near-term update to the SCC and of a comprehensive update of the SCC to ensure that the estimates reflect the best available science. This interim report focuses on near-term updates to the SCC estimates.
72 pages
·
8.5 x 11
·
paperback
ISBN Paperback: 0-309-39145-8
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-39146-6
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/21898
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Assessment of Approaches to Updating the Social Cost of Carbon: Phase 1 Report on a Near-Term Update. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
Import this citation to: